The stock market closed the last trading week before the Lunar New Year holiday with a favorable technical recovery, regaining the important milestones of 1,800 points and MA20 (the moving average calculating the closing price of assets in the last 20 trading sessions/day), thereby minimizing the risk of deep correction after the holiday, in a scenario where external factors do not fluctuate too negatively.
However, the recovery momentum is differentiated, causing the trading week to return from February 23 to likely struggle when VN-Index heads up to test the 1,850 point zone.
In the short term, the near resistance zone at 1,850 - 1,860 points, while the threshold of 1,790 points will be an important support zone to re-evaluate supply and demand when the market adjusts.
Liquidity has not yet returned to the trend confirmation level, so it is necessary to monitor more news developments during the holidays and market reactions after Tet to assess the durability of the recovery momentum.
According to the assessment of Kafi Securities Company, quantitative and qualitative signals show that cash flow on the stock market is becoming more selective and clear. Quantitatively, liquidity increased sharply, regularly reaching about 40,000 billion VND per session, while foreign investors returned to net buying.
However, the noteworthy point lies in the qualitative factor, when cash flow focuses on businesses with good foundations but have not increased sharply in price, reflecting the trend of revaluation of enterprises, especially in the group of state-owned enterprises. This shows that smart cash flow is shifting to seize new opportunities.
Historic statistics show a rather optimistic view of market performance after Tet. In particular, if compared with the results of the previous year, it can be seen that post-Tet movement partly reflects the "profit buffer" that investors have accumulated, thereby creating a psychology of cash flow ready to accompany and seek new opportunities.
Analysts from Kafi Securities Company identified 2026 as the year of "resource release", on the basis of growth established in 2025 and breakthrough policies, typically Resolution 79-NQ/TW.
Along with that, the KRX trading system being deployed is an inevitable change, helping the market operate on a new infrastructure platform, meeting large transaction scale and improving the capacity to develop financial products according to international practices. This is an important premise to increase professionalism and attract foreign capital flows.
Regarding investment opportunities, ACBS Securities Company gave the view that the Vietnamese stock market in 2026 will revolve around 4 major investment topics.
The first is the IPO wave in the 2026-2030 period, driven by market upgrade prospects, IPO procedure reform and the need to expand non-bank capital mobilization channels in the context of GDP growth targets of 10%/year or more. The new IPO wave is expected to be diverse in industries and have a more reasonable valuation platform.
Second, the banking industry continues to play the role of "safe anchor" of the market. Despite facing pressure from interest rates and the slowdown of real estate, credit growth is still maintained at a high level, NIM is stable, cost efficiency is improved and asset quality is controlled. A valuation level lower than the historical average creates room for medium and long-term cash flow.
Third, public investment in the period 2026-2030 will be the main driving force for the economy's growth. Large capital scale, high backlog and improved disbursement progress help infrastructure construction and construction materials enterprises have a clear medium-term growth foundation.
Fourth is the "sand finds gold" strategy in midcap and smallcap stock groups, where investment opportunities lie in businesses with substantial profit growth, healthy balance sheets and attractive valuations after the adjustment period.
