After a positive trading session yesterday (February 11), the stock market quickly returned to the usual scenario of the days leading up to Tet Nguyen Dan when liquidity was quite weak. Pillar stock groups such as banks, securities... all cooled down. The biggest support is Vingroup, which helped VN-Index continue to maintain its upward momentum.
VN-Index did not have many major fluctuations when the market only had 1 more trading session to welcome the long holiday. Cash flow still participated quite slowly and the large pair VIC-VHM continued to play the role of the main support point helping the market maintain green color, liquidity down to the lowest level in about 8 months.
VN-Index increased by 17.24 points (+0.96%) to 1,814.09 points, with 177 gainers and 135 losers. Total trading volume reached 498.3 million units, total trading value reached 16,214 billion VND, down 56.5% in volume and down 49.26% in value compared to yesterday's session 11. 2. Foreign investors' transactions are a plus when net buying is about 346 billion VND.
The VN30 group is quite balanced with 14 gainers and 12 losers, but at the end of the session, the group's index still increased by more than 15 points. Among them, the largest contribution is still Vingroup stocks, with VHM closing the session up 5.8%, VIC up 5.4%, VRE up 1.9%. Just these 3 stocks alone contributed 16.4 points to the VN30 group and contributed nearly 20 points to the general index.
In the opposite direction, MBB and BID, after yesterday's positive session, quickly reversed direction, both decreasing by more than 2%, of which MBB matched orders reaching nearly 28 million units, ranking 2nd in terms of liquidity in the market.
In a newly released report, ABS Securities Company noted that the market's gain range is showing signs of narrowing, which may reflect efforts to push up prices in the context of increasing FOMO sentiment, especially in the large-cap stock group that has gone through a prolonged period of increase.
Market liquidity is gradually weakening, posing risks for large-cap stocks. Leading stocks are entering a correction phase, interspersed with weak recovery sessions, while the midcap and small cap segments are increasing quite rapidly again. This development shows that the general market may shift to a sideways state with a wide amplitude.
Based on the long-term trend still maintaining the upward momentum, short-term and medium-term trends are assessed by ABS's analysis team as follows:
Regarding the medium-term trend, on the medium-term chart, VN-Index and VN30 still maintain a top-bottom structure gradually increasing. However, the upward momentum weakens, reflected in the divergence between price and volume in the context of a significant decrease in liquidity. At the same time, the price is approaching and violating the October 2025 peak zone.
Medium-term cash flow shows signs of gradually withdrawing from the market, the leading stock group is shifting to a correction trend. If the support zone of 1,740 - 1,700 points is maintained, VN-Index may move sideways in the area of 1,920 - 1,700 points. The support of the medium-term uptrend is established at the area of 1,606 - 1,586 points.
In the context of the general market adjustment, the price decrease accompanied by volume and liquidity is not large enough to create a state of panic. Some stock groups still maintain the dominant upward trend such as oil and gas, industrial park real estate, retail, food and export. The support zone for the short-term upward trend is defined at 1,750 - 1,700 points.
In general, VN-Index is in a short-term correction process in the context of a weakening medium-term trend and shifting to a sideways state. Cash flow is lower than the period before August 2025. The current correction is considered necessary and healthy, aiming for the circulation of industry-oriented cash flow.
