After a year of explosion with a series of historical milestones, the Vietnamese stock market enters 2026, opening up many new expectations when factors from macroeconomics, monetary policy to business profit prospects are all moving in a positive direction.
Business quality and real growth capacity are identified by investors as priority factors instead of short-term investment and speculation waves.
The biggest driving force of the stock market in 2026 comes from the actual growth of the economy, instead of just relying on a few key stock groups as in the previous period. If in 2025, growth is mainly driven by public investment and domestic drivers, then in 2026, domestic consumption recovery along with global economic growth is expected to become important pillars, helping the market continue to expand its upward momentum.
In that context, market-wide corporate profits are forecast to increase by about 19–20% in 2026, higher than the 18% of 2025. Equitable and fundamental profit growth is considered an important factor in improving valuation and strengthening the market's upward trend.
According to estimates by the Research Department of Shinhan Securities Vietnam Company (SSV Research), profit growth of listed companies on HOSE in 2026 is estimated to reach 18.5% in the basic scenario with the assumption that the two main groups, banking and real estate, maintain growth momentum. With a projected P/E equivalent to the 10-year average around 15x, VN-Index can completely conquer the reasonable price range around 1,900 - 2,000 points.
In a positive scenario, if the market is pushed to a higher valuation level (P/E 16x) thanks to foreign capital returning when the market upgrades, the upward momentum spreads to many industry groups, VN-Index may surpass the 2,100 point mark in 2026 and this is still an attractive valuation area compared to markets in the region such as Indonesia and Malaysia.
FTSE's announcement of upgrading the Vietnamese market, along with strong reforms in trading infrastructure and operating mechanisms, will help the market move closer to the standards of developed markets in the region. These factors both strengthen the confidence of existing investors and attract more foreign institutional investors and new capital flows, creating a foundation for long-term development.
According to estimates, within 5 years after the upgrade, total foreign capital inflows into Vietnam could reach about 25 billion USD. In 2026 alone, the scale of this capital flow is forecast to be at 2-6 billion USD, mainly from passive investment funds (ETFs) and part of active capital flows.
However, experts believe that the most positive scenario in 2026 is that foreign investors reduce net selling and gradually return to a balanced state. A strong net buying return can only occur if the global interest rate environment is truly favorable and macroeconomic risks cool down significantly. Conversely, if Japan continues to raise interest rates and the Fed does not ease as expected, foreign capital is likely to remain neutral, not enough to create a major boost for the market.
Besides, the story of upgrading the stock market is just the beginning. The factor that has a more profound impact on market prospects lies in the story of upgrading the national credit rating, because this is a variable that directly affects the cost of capital of the entire economy.
Experts also believe that cash flow on the stock market is likely to be more selective in the context of risks related to liquidity and increased interest rates, making industry groups sensitive to less attractive interest rates. Currently, it can be said that the interest rate story is considered a key factor. Accordingly, if deposit interest rates increase to over 11–12%, cash flow may strongly withdraw from the stock market and shift strongly to the deposit channel.
