The stock market started in June with a strong struggle week. After increasing positive points in the first two sessions of the week to set up a new peak after more than 3 years, VN-Index reversed and decreased in the next 3 sessions with increasing intensity. The clear weakness of the pillar group with the cautious psychology of investors makes it difficult to keep the rhythm.
With a sharp decrease in the session last weekend, the previous 4-week consecutive increase streak ended. The fact that the index continuously tested the old peak in March 2025, equivalent to the 1,320-1,340 point range, shows that this is an important resistance level that the VN-Index needs to overcome if it wants to maintain its upward momentum.
On HOSE, the speculative cash flow is strong and another week is still a group of small and medium real estate stocks. Since the beginning of the year, real estate stocks continue to be the main motivation of the market, with an outstanding increase of 70%, while the banking industry, accounting for the largest proportion in the market capitalization, only increased modestly by 2%.
In terms of impact, TCB leads on the negative side, taking away 1.3 points from the VN-Index. Followed by VIC, GVR and VHM, which also put pressure on the index, causing a total decrease of nearly 2.5 points.
Notably, PNJ shares had a week of strong fluctuations and lost more than 8%, with information related to gold and jewelry trading activities. Accordingly, the State Bank Inspectorate has fined PNJ more than 1.3 billion VND and some violations will be transferred to the Ministry of Public Security for investigation.
Foreign trading is also a negative point in the week from June 2-6 when net selling strongly. In total, after 5 sessions, foreign investors net sold VND1,781 billion in the whole market. On each floor of the week alone, foreign investors net sold VND2,755 billion on HoSE, VND46 billion on HNX and VND116 billion on UPCoM.
According to statistics according to stock codes, the focus of net selling was recorded at VHM shares with a value of VND 1,741 billion with a sudden net selling transaction of more than VND 1,500 billion in the end of the session on June 6. In addition, FPT and HAH were also net sold for VND292 billion and VND224 billion, respectively. On the other hand, VND shares were net bought the most by foreign investors with VND 338 billion.
VNDirect Securities Company assessed that after a strong recovery in May, the upward space of VN-Index in June may be narrowed as the index is approaching the important resistance zone of 1,340 - 1,350 points. In the short term, market accumulation is necessary to absorb low supply and form a new price level, thereby creating a foundation for a further breakthrough.
In terms of valuation, the strong recovery of VN-Index from the end of April to the end of May has brought the market to the market back to about 12.9 times as the beginning of the year. However, this valuation is still attractive while discounting about 16% compared to the average of 10 years. Despite the challenges from the US reciprocal tax policy, VNDIRECT expected the EPS growth of listed businesses on HOSE to reach 12-17% in 2025, depending on the tariff scenarios.
VNDirect maintains 3 forecast scenarios for the Vietnamese stock market in 2025 in the context of trade negotiations between Vietnam and the US entering an important phase in June.
In the positive scenario, if the countervailing tax rate from the US side is below 20%, VNDirect forecasts that the VN-Index could reach 1,520 points, equivalent to a growth rate of 20% compared to the end of 2024.
In the neutral scenario, VNDirect assumes the counterpart tax rate from the US is around 20-30%, VN-Index can reach 1,400 points by the end of 2025, equivalent to an increase of 10%.
On the contrary, in the negative scenario, when the counterpart tax rate may increase to 30 - 46%, the VN-Index may close in 2025 at 1,230 points, equivalent to a decrease of 3% compared to the end of the previous year.
