The Vietnamese stock market is showing signs of slowing down after a strong recovery with more than 270 points, bringing the VN-Index closer to the old peak of 1,340 points. Short-term profit-taking pressure appeared in some large-cap stocks, causing the index to fluctuate around the resistance zone, shifting from an uptrend to a state of tug-of-war and sideways accumulation.
This shows that in the short term, the market may have a technical correction to re-evaluate supply and demand before establishing a new trend.
Another noteworthy point is the group of stocks, which often moves in sync with the VN-Index, which is having a weak recovery. This shows the lack of consensus among market-sensitive stocks, reflecting the cautious sentiment and reservations of institutional cash flow in the context of the index's recent rapid increase.
In addition, liquidity of the VN30 group, representing large-cap stocks, is still low, below the average of the last 20 sessions. Instead, cash flow focused on high-speculative middle-cap stocks, further showing the thinning of the wave this time.
Regarding the trading trend of foreign investors, although considered a bright spot in the region, the Vietnamese stock market still witnessed a long-term net selling momentum from foreign investors last week. This development reflects the cautious psychology of international capital flows in the context of the global economy facing many uncertainties such as public debt risks, geopolitical conflicts and unclear trade policies from the US.
Commenting on the market in June, the strategic analysis of the HSC Securities Company offers the scenario from a neutral perspective, VN -Index is likely to need more time to accumulate and psychological testing in the nearest resistance area of 1,280 - 1,300 points, before being able to continue the trend of increasing. The ability to increase immediately or overcome resistance depends on whether the upcoming trade negotiation between Vietnam and the US will be positive or not.
During this period, investors should be cautious, focusing on observing market reactions in the strong resistance zone around 1,340 points and paying special attention to the spread of cash flow in adjustment sessions (if any). Only when liquidity improves and leading industry groups truly enter the market can we expect a more sustainable growth cycle for the second half of 2025, HSC's strategic analysis block commented.
According to the experts of DSC Securities Company, in the scenario for VN-Index this week, in the first trading week of June, the index may fluctuate, but there is little chance of a deep decrease. The index is in a strong support zone at 1,280 - 1,300 points. The differentiation between stocks is expected to continue and cash flow will be more selective than before.
The answer may come from the analysis of valuation contribution mechanism. In recent times, the banking stock group - accounting for a large proportion of the index - has pulled the general price of the market to low. Many bank codes are traded at a valuation of P/E less than 10 times, although the bank maintains a stable profit and has potential growth. This makes the common index cheap.
However, the market's long-term growth potential is more important. Vietnam's economy maintains a positive growth momentum, becoming a bright spot in the region.
"The stock market is expected to be upgraded, which will lead to long-term foreign capital. Many industries such as real estate, retail, construction ... have passed through the bottom of the cycle and have clear recovery in the coming year. The total of the above factors shows that VN-Index is being valued at attractive levels, while the potential growth is still large.
