The real estate group in the stock market period after suffering the recent tariff shock has recorded quite large clearances.
However, it is worth noting that more than 10% of stocks in this industry group still maintained a long-term uptrend during the unstable sessions of April 2025. The market recovery has helped many real estate stocks such as VHM, NLG, NVL, DXG, ITC, CEO... reach new peaks in 2025, in which VHM increased by 94%.
According to Vietstock's statistics, at the end of the last trading session of May 2025, 16/32 real estate stocks had a long-term uptrend, a state recorded before the market experienced a shocking decline.
This shows that price recovery and interest from large investors have returned but have not spread widely enough to confirm an industry wave. However, in reality, the peaks of 2025 are still very far from the peaks of the past.
According to experts, real estate stocks after a long period of stagnation are a group with high potential when they rebound because this group is still in the low price range. At the same time, with policy support moves to resolve legal disruptions to help businesses speed up project implementation, it will be factors that help this industry group become more attractive in the coming time.
In the latest assessment by VIS Rating, the residential real estate market recorded a clear recovery in the first quarter of 2025 thanks to strong support from bank policies and credit. The current low interest rate level has created conditions for both businesses and home buyers to access capital at cheaper costs, contributing to stimulating both supply and demand in the market. This is an important foundation to help businesses increase the speed of project implementation.
However, the biggest weakness of the real estate industry is still operating cash flow. Although the level is negative, cash flow has narrowed, as shown in the financial report for the first quarter of 2025, the increase in customer installment balances also showed signs of improvement.
However, it is still not enough to completely reverse the cash flow shortage. In addition, a worrying thing is that the inventory picture of the Vietnamese real estate industry as of the end of the first quarter of 2025 continues to fluctuate, reaching more than VND51,000 billion, an increase of 2% compared to the beginning of the year.
Vietstock's statistics show that Novaland continues to be the leading name with inventories of more than VND 148,600 billion, up 1% and accounting for nearly 1/3 of the entire real estate industry listed on the exchange. Most of them are real estate for sale under construction, up to nearly VND141,000 billion, the remaining VND8,000 billion is for completed products. Compared to before the COVID-19 pandemic, Novaland's current inventory has increased 2.6 times.
Some other businesses have large inventories of over VND 10,000 billion such as Khang Dien's house of more than VND 22,400 billion, Nam Long is over VND 17,500 billion, Phat reaches more than VND 14,000 billion ... Also according to the statistics of this unit, by the end of the first quarter I/2025, 14 real estate enterprises with inventory accounts for over 50% of total assets, most of them are residential real estate groups. Considering the total asset, 3 big men including VIC, VHM, and NVL have a total inventory accounting for nearly 62% of the whole industry, at more than 315,000 billion VND, up 2% compared to the beginning of the year.
According to a report from the Ministry of Construction, the inventory of real estate in projects in the first quarter of 2025 is about 23,400 houses and land (including apartments, individual houses, land). In which, land dominated with 11,685 plots, 2,339 apartments, respectively 2 and 2.5 times higher than the previous quarter. In contrast, the number of individual houses decreased by 16%, down to 9,376 units.
These figures show that although the market is being pushed by policies and low interest rates, liquidity has not returned as expected. Inventory is continuing to be a big challenge for investors, especially when financial pressure from debt and implementation costs has not decreased.
