The Vietnamese stock market has just had another flourishing trading session. In the trading session on June 3, the great consensus of the bluechip group and the sudden strong cash flow helped the VN-Index have a positive increase of over 1,345 points. The total trading volume reached more than 1,156 million units, worth VND 25,725.7 billion.
In that context, foreign transactions also became a bright spot when they returned to strong net buying of nearly VND970 billion in today's session.
Since the shocking decrease due to the impact of tax policies (recorded on April 9), the index has increased by more than 250 points, equivalent to about 23%. The HoSE market capitalization reached nearly VND5.8 trillion. In all three exchanges, Vietnamese stocks have gained nearly VND1.5 trillion in less than two months. This figure includes the capitalization of "rookie" Vinpearl (VPL) which floated in mid-May with a valuation of more than 5 billion USD.
In a newly published strategy report, VNDirect Securities Company assessed VN-Index as surpassing the 1,300-point mark in May not only because of the positive signal from global trade agreements but also thanks to strong internal push.
Regarding the market context in June, VNDirect expects the downward trend of the DXY index, along with the possibility of the Vietnamese market being upgraded by FTSE in September, to be positive factors supporting the stock market in 2025.
These factors can help improve investor psychology and attract new capital flows, helping the stock market to be revalued at a higher level, thereby helping the stock market yields maintain their attractiveness compared to deposit interest rates.
VNDirect maintains three scenarios for the market in 2025, with the goal of VN-Index reaching 1,400 points in the base scenario. In an optimistic scenario, the VN-Index could surpass the 1,500-point mark and close at 1,520 points if Vietnam successfully negotiates with the US on reducing counterpart tariffs to below 20% or cutting interest rates strongly to boost economic growth.
However, experts from VNDirect Securities Company also believe that after a strong recovery in May, the upward space of VN-Index in June may narrow as the index is approaching the important resistance zone of 1,340 - 1,350 points. In the short term, market accumulation is necessary to absorb low supply and form a new price level, thereby creating a foundation for a further breakthrough.
This is also a strategic time for investors to restructure their portfolios, take profits from stocks that have increased and shift to industries with attractive valuations, and have not fully recovered in the price range before the adjustment session on April 2.
Mr. Ho Huu Tuan Hieu - Investment Strategist at SSI Securities Investment Consulting and Analysis Center said that June is expected to be a more vibrant month for information related to trade tensions and final tariff conclusions (expected around June 9). The third round of negotiations between Vietnam and the US could take place in early June. This information can have a big impact on the market but cannot be predicted.
Accordingly, SSI experts recommend a cautious trading strategy. The stock should only be kept at a balance of about 50% - 70%, and may be lower if the market fluctuates badly. Limit trading activities or use margin (leverage) at this time.
We should proactively reduce the proportion of stocks that have increased well in the recent past. If you have to buy, you should maintain a low proportion, be careful and slow in trading. For potential stocks in the medium and long term that have not fully recovered or have recovered poorly compared to the market, this may be the time to consider disbursing.
