With many important economic information and data ahead, investors have chosen an observant and cautious position. That has caused the stock market to have a trading session on July 1, recording strong tensions.
The high selling pressure caused the VN-Index to suddenly plummet and fall below the reference level. It was not until the end of the afternoon session that demand returned strongly, especially from banking stocks, helping the VN-Index promptly "take risks".
At the end of the session, the VN-Index increased by 1.77 points, to 1,377.84 points. Meanwhile, the HNX-Index decreased by 0.77 points, down to 228.45 points. The UPCoM-Index decreased by 0.2 points, down to 100.64 points. Liquidity in the market improved compared to the previous session, with the total trading value on all 3 exchanges reaching nearly VND 22,900 billion. On HoSE alone, liquidity reached nearly VND21,000 billion.
After net buying in yesterday's session, foreign investors have "turned around" to net sell in today's session with a value of nearly 350 billion VND. The positive point is that many bluechips continue to receive cash flow attention such as CTG, VCB, FPT, MSN.
Profit-taking pressure is something that experts predict will be inevitable in the stock market when the VN-Index has been at its peak for more than 3 years. In terms of psychology, investors will still look forward to July 9, when the effectiveness of the US temporary suspension of countervailing tariffs will expire.
On the other hand, domestically, important economic data for the second quarter and the first half of the year are about to be released, as well as the picture of business results in the second quarter of 2025 of enterprises are gradually being revealed, which is also the reason why investors are slowing down during this period.
In a newly released report, VNDirect Securities Company assessed that the VN-Index recorded an impressive increase of 6.7% since the beginning of the year, outperforming markets in the region. The market is positive even as Vietnam is facing the highest proposed countervailing tax rate in the region of up to 46%, reflecting the solid internal foundation of the economy and increased investor confidence in upcoming supporting factors, including tax reduction negotiations and market upgrade prospects.
However, the increase has not really spread widely. Real estate is a bright spot with an increase of up to 66.8% compared to the beginning of the year, led by two pillar stocks, VHM and VIC. The banking group increased quite modestly by 5.3%, mainly from a few stocks with their own supporting factors.
To reflect a more optimistic view of the prospects for tax negotiations between Vietnam and the US, VNDirect has adjusted its forecast for VN-Index at the end of 2025 to 1,450 points (up 14% compared to the end of 2024), from the previous forecast of 1,400 points.
The basic scenario is that Vietnam is expected to successfully negotiate, bringing the average counterpart tax rate to about 16 - 22%, while the Fed will make two interest rate cuts in the second half of this year, helping the exchange rate to be stable.
The analysis team expects these factors to support the net profit growth in 2025 of companies listed on HOSE to range between 12-17%. An upgrade from FTSE is expected to support valuation, with the base scenario setting a target of VN-Index reaching 1,450 points by the end of 2025, the target P/E coefficient at 13.5 times.
Along with that, a solid macro foundation is still the main support for the market in the coming time. In the country, a solid macro foundation is still the main support for the market: GDP growth is forecast to reach 7.3%, credit growth is 16%.
Vietnam's GDP in the first half of the year is forecast to increase by 7.3%, thanks to stable industrial production and strong trade growth, partly thanks to the temporary tax suspension from the US. The growth momentum is expected to be maintained in the second half of the year, supported by public investment, expansionary fiscal policies, real estate legal easing and promoting the private sector.
