The last trading week of June of the stock market ended with a strong increase in the VN-Index, despite fluctuations from global geopolitical tensions. The VN-Index has successfully conquered the threshold of 1,370 points, setting a new peak in 2025.
Average liquidity on HoSE reached VND21,000 billion/session. Cash flow is still circulating well in the market with internal strength, demonstrated through the continuous net buying movement from domestic individual investors.
July is considered an important period for the stock market. Most notably, the July 9 deadline is the deadline for the US to officially announce the new tax rate, an event that could create fluctuations in sentiment and capital flow expectations. This will be an important factor shaping market developments in the short term, especially for export stocks that are under pressure on revenue prospects.
Meanwhile, the season of announcing business results for the second quarter of 2025 will show the real profit picture of the enterprise after a volatile first half of the year. In addition, the speed of policy penetration and public investment disbursement continues to be a key driving force to help maintain domestic cash flow.
According to the assessment of analysts at Phu Hung Securities Company, the deadline for temporary deferral of counterpart tariffs is approaching and it seems that the market is starting to recognize and evaluate. The general level is being priced based on 3 scenarios.
In the baseline scenario, when the tax rate fluctuates within 20-25%, the market may shift to a trend reshaping stage, and begin to re-evaluate the affected industry groups, with sideways fluctuations will be the main force.
On the positive side, when the tax rate is within the range of 15-20% or lower, it will be a great driving force for the market to break out, and optimistically, it will conquer the old peak of 1,500 points.
While on the cautious side, a tax rate above 30% will be disappointing and make trading sentiment more negative, which can cause sharp declines.
Most experts are still leaning towards the possibility of a first scenario, however, investors also need to prepare appropriate strategies to cope with some unfavorable scenarios. The group of stocks that are considered vulnerable and sensitive to tax policies are still groups with export activities such as seafood, textiles, rubber, along with the group worried about FDI shifting like the Industrial Park.
In addition, the market is still expecting foreign investors to reverse the net selling trend in the coming time when the net selling movement has started to decrease since May. In addition, the weakening of the US dollar could support emerging markets, making them more attractive investment channels.
When the picture of trade tariff policies becomes clear, the focus will shift to the story of the business results of the second quarter of the enterprise, in addition to personal stories such as capital increase activities, listing, transferring exchanges... Some companies have begun to have some profit estimates, bringing the market their own expectations.
