The Vietnamese stock market closed 2025 with a historic milestone. Closing the session on December 31, VN-Index jumped nearly 18 points and stopped at 1,784.49 points, officially surpassing the all-time peak (calculated at closing price). The 1% increase at the end of the year also pushed the capitalization of HoSE for the first time to exceed 8.3 million billion VND.
If calculated for all 3 exchanges, the total market capitalization of Vietnamese securities is nearly 10 million billion VND, the highest ever. This figure is equivalent to about 70% of Vietnam's GDP in 2025 (524 billion USD), according to estimates by the UK Center for Independent Economic Forecasting and Analysis (CEBR).
On the path of VN-Index reaching 1,800 points in the past year, it is impossible not to mention the mark of Vingroup (VIC). The group of billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong had a spectacular breakthrough year, stocks increased 8 times, capitalization reached more than 1.3 million billion VND. An unprecedented record made Vingroup the first Vietnamese enterprise with a capitalization exceeding the threshold of 1 million billion VND.
In terms of contribution level, VIC alone brought more than 280 points to VN-Index in 2025. If the entire Vingroup ecosystem on HoSE (VIC, VHM, VPL and VRE) is calculated, the total contribution to the index is up to 396 points. With a total market capitalization of more than 2 million billion VND, this group accounts for about 25% of the entire HoSE exchange. This number is only inferior to the banking group with more than 20 listed representatives.
Regarding foreign investors' transactions, in 2025, foreign investors net sold a record amount of more than 125,000 billion VND on HoSE. In peak periods, foreign investors net withdrew thousands of billions of VND per session. The continuous net selling pushed the foreign ownership ratio on HoSE to nearly 15% at one point, the lowest in the past 13 years.
However, the significant decline in net selling in the last month of the year is bringing positive signals. The official upgrade and solid macroeconomic foundation are expected to reverse the flow of foreign capital in the Vietnamese stock market in the coming period.
In the context of foreign investors diligently selling net, domestic cash flow is the main driving force to help the market stand firm and rise. The low interest rate environment stimulates new investors to participate in the stock market. The number of newly opened securities accounts reached about 2.3 million accounts after the first 11 months of 2025, equivalent to a record level recorded in 2021. Thanks to that, Vietnamese securities have exceeded the target of 11 million accounts before the deadline of 2030.
Stepping into 2026, the Vietnamese stock market is predicted by experts to likely continue to move in a strongly differentiated direction.
According to forecasts by Vietcap Securities Company, VN-Index in 2026 may reach 2,033 points, corresponding to an increase of about 17% compared to the previous year's level. The main driving force for this scenario comes from corporate profit growth continuing to be maintained at a high level, while market valuation is expected to become more attractive.
VPBankS Research's Investment Outlook Report for 2026 shows that macroeconomic expectations will increase stability in 2026. At the same time, the quality of bad debts throughout the banking system has improved in 9 months of 2025, sending positive signals for the market outlook for 2026.
VPBankS Research forecasts the VN-Index target by the end of 2026 to be 2,087 points, based on the projected target P/E level of 16.5 times and EPS growth of 14.4% compared to the same period.
Mr. Huynh Anh Huy, CFA - Director of Industry Analysis - Securities Kafi, said that the VN-Index's dependence on some large-cap stocks in the short term is not an unusual phenomenon, similar to what has been and is happening in major markets around the world. However, in the medium and long term, the sustainable upward momentum of the market must still be built on the foundation of real profit growth and a reasonable valuation level.
Therefore, a suitable investment strategy in 2026 according to Mr. Huynh Anh Huy's point of view should focus on selecting leading enterprises, capable of directly benefiting from the investment - reform cycle, owning a healthy financial foundation, stable cash flow and high capital efficiency. Enterprises with valuations that are in an attractive zone compared to medium-term profit prospects will have a clear advantage in attracting long-term cash flow.
