Despite a slight fluctuation at the beginning of the trading session on December 31 - the last trading session of the year, the VN-Index gradually regained its upward momentum when it received strong support from Vingroup stock group and the recovery of real estate stock group.
VN Index closed the trading session on December 31 with an increase of 17.6 points, to 1,784 points. In early 2025, VN Index started at 1,266 points. Thus, with the closing score of 2025 being 1,784 points, this index recorded an increase of nearly 518 points, equivalent to an increase of more than 40%.
Liquidity in the last session of the year stood at an average level with 698 million shares transferred, equivalent to a transaction value of more than 22,000 billion VND. The highlight of the year-end session in 2025 was that foreign investors net bought 714 billion VND on the HoSE exchange.
The event of nearly 3.9 billion VIC (Vingroup) shares officially being issued to increase capital into investor accounts and being traded on the same day, December 31, 2025, did not cause any fluctuations. VIC code was almost untouched, even closing the session up 4% with nearly 9.5 million matched order shares. The remaining codes also recorded impressive increases: VPL (up 3.5%), VHM (up 5.5%), VRE (up 2.6%).
2025 marked the most brilliant year of growth in history, and at the same time made Vietnam one of the most efficient stock markets in the world. As of December 25, 2025, VN-Index is trading at 15.8 times P/E, 16% higher than the 3-year average (13.6x).
Unlike previous booming cycles, the 2025 stock market witnessed the "condensation" of the VN-Index when the Vingroup stock group (VIC, VHM, VRE) contributed 21% of the market capitalization and 67% of the index's gain points. According to stock analysts, this development is not an unusual factor when the concentration on some stocks is also taking place in the real markets of other countries.
However, any price increase cycle that wants to maintain sustainability must be built on profit growth and appropriate valuation. With valuations of approximately 14.0x P/E and 9.0x P/B, the group of analysts of MBS Securities Company believes that VIC's advantages have been fully reflected in market prices.
Therefore, if we try to estimate the valuation of VN-Index when removing the influence of this stock, the result is that the current P/E of VN-Index is 13.5x, the average of 2025 is 12.2x. This shows that the upward momentum of VN-Index, if removing the influence of VIC stock, will mainly come from profit growth, more than from raising the valuation (re-rating).
Based on the expectation of profit growth of listed companies at 16 - 17%, MBS forecasts that VN-Index will reach 1,670 - 1,750 by the end of 2026.
In the first half of 2026, MBS experts maintained a positive view due to the "good news at the beginning of the year" effect and the possibility that the Vietnamese stock market will be officially upgraded after the mid-term review in March. The possibility that VN-Index may head towards the 1,860 point zone.
