The Vietnamese stock market closed the last trading session of the week with a sharp decrease. Cautious sentiment accompanied by selling pressure caused the main index to fall deeply to the 1.755 point mark, equivalent to losing more than 27 points in the session on June 6. 2. The matched order value on HoSE was at a high level of nearly 31,200 billion VND.
In the past week, with 4 declining sessions and only one increasing session, the VN-Index dropped 73.55 points, equivalent to -4.02% and was the third consecutive week of decreasing, respectively -2.2% and -0.44%.
In that context, foreign investors' transactions were a minus point when continuing the net selling momentum of 835 billion VND across the market. On HoSE, foreign investors strongly net sold nearly 920 billion VND. Net selling pressure focused on large-cap groups when VCB was dumped the most with about 610 billion VND, followed by VIC (approximately 314 billion VND) and HDB (about 195 billion VND).
In today's session, the most anticipated was the Vingroup group with VIC sometimes jumping more than 5%, but closing at only +0.7% to VND 131,000, while VHM slightly decreased, VRE decreased by 2.6% and VPL -3.5% to VND 83,000.
Heavy pressure came from many stocks in different large and small industry groups. Among them, VGC, MSH fell to the floor price, VCI, HAG, ORS, NLG, VHC, CII, FRT, GEE, PET, PNJ codes decreased by 5% to more than 6% are the most significant decliners.
Assessing the lack of momentum in the market for cash flow in the short term, some experts believe that the main reason is that the long holiday is about to begin and the business results announcement season has ended. Individual investors often tend to reduce margin ratios to manage risks and finalize finances before the Lunar New Year holiday.
In February 2026, VN-Index is forecast to move according to the "pressure spring" scenario, with a support zone of 1,830 - 1,850 points and a target of 1,950 points in the first half of the year. Liquidity may maintain around VND 20,000 billion/session before Tet, before exploding to VND 30,000 - 35,000 billion/session after the holiday when cash flow returns.
However, 15-year statistics show that VN-Index increased 11 times in the first quarter, thanks to positive information such as the Government's economic orientation and businesses' business plans.
Therefore, experts still expect an upward scenario in the first quarter, but leading stocks in 2025 may stagnate, giving way to stock groups with good foundations but not increasing much, creating a slightly upward market picture but still showing outstanding profit opportunities.
The movement of foreign investors after Tet is also very promising. The event of FTSE Russell announcing the revaluation results for the Vietnamese market at the end of March - early April will be a driving force to activate short-term cash flow, as well as foreign investors' cash flow.
The focus of cash flow needs to be on active trading groups such as retail to anticipate consumer demand at the end of the year, and the oil and gas group, which is sensitive to inter-market fluctuations and speculative cash flow. In addition, stocks related to FDI (industrial park real estate) and large state-owned enterprises will play a "anchor" role in macroeconomics thanks to the story of public investment disbursement and the market upgrade roadmap.
Technically, instead of chasing after stocks that have increased sharply, investors should prioritize stocks that are trading near the support zone or have completed the re-accumulation phase to create a new high foundation after the breakthrough. The strategy of buying at the base helps optimize the profit/risk ratio and limit the impact from short-term fluctuations, which often appear 5-10 sessions before Tet when individual investors lower margin.
