Looking back in 2024, the VN-Index recorded an increase of more than 12.1%, approximately the 12.2% increase in 2023; ending the last session on December 31, 2024 at 1,266.78 points.
Although the VN-Index reached its peak last year in mid-June when it just surpassed the 1,300-point mark, the index's performance over the past year was generally uneven; the recovery was best in the first quarter, then shifted to a slight tug-of-war state throughout the rest of the year.
In 2024, foreign investors were net sellers for 11 months, and only net buyers in January.
In total, this group net sold 3.12 billion shares, with a total net selling value of VND92,294 billion, equivalent to more than USD3.6 billion, nearly 4 times higher in both volume and value compared to 2023.
In particular, compared to the previous record year set in 2021 with a net sale value of 1.53 billion shares, worth VND 62,237 billion, last year, this number doubled in volume, increasing by nearly 50% in value.
However, with the positive developments from the Banking and Securities stocks, the market is expected to continue to maintain its high level in the next trading week. At the same time, short-term profit-taking pressure will also open up opportunities to accumulate buying at low prices for good stocks with positive prospects in the first quarter of 2025.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, commented that banking stocks are at quite attractive prices due to the long accumulation period in recent times.
Some other sectors such as retail, logistics, chemicals, public investment, technology will be the priority target sectors for disbursement in the first months of the new year. Of course, cash flow will only focus on some major leading stocks and businesses with the best growth potential.
Analysts from DSC Securities Company (SCSC) believe that in the current context, VN-Index is expected to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range of about 1,240 - 1,300 points, without any strong fluctuations. Each fluctuation will be an opportunity for investors to buy stocks with good fundamentals and strong growth potential in 2025.
In 2025, public investment is expected to be the main driver of economic growth, with total public investment reaching a record VND791 trillion, equivalent to 6.4% of GDP.
In particular, the Law on Public Investment (amended) will take effect from January 1, 2025; adjustments to PPP policies will remove legal and procedural obstacles, creating conditions for projects to be deployed quickly.
Residential real estate and industrial parks also benefit indirectly when infrastructure is improved, increasing the ability to attract investment.
Public investment not only creates momentum for economic growth, but also improves national competitiveness, shaping a new development cycle for the construction and infrastructure industry.
However, investors in public investment stocks should focus on businesses with clear growth stories, choose appropriate buying points, and avoid chasing buying with FOMO mentality.
TPS Securities experts predict that the major risk that investors need to watch in 2025 is that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) or other major central banks will raise interest rates to control inflation, causing a decline in foreign investment flows into Vietnam.
Besides, the world geopolitical situation is unstable, or the US maintains restrictive policies towards China...
There are also two risks domestically. First, the stock market is currently highly concentrated in a few sectors such as banking and real estate. If these sectors do not grow as expected, the entire market could be affected.
Second, a market upgrade that does not go as planned could dampen foreign investors' expectations.
