The peak zone testing process was clearly seen in the past week when VN-Index continuously recorded alternating up and down sessions.
Selling pressure appeared right from the beginning of the week, causing the index to fall below the 1,900 point mark, but support from the large-cap stock group helped the market quickly recover, even setting a new historical peak around the 1, 925 point threshold. However, differentiation still dominates in the context that liquidity is not really consensual, making the upward momentum unsustainable.
VN-Index adjusted back in the last session of the week after setting a new historical peak and ending the trading week at the threshold of 1.921.6 points. However, for the whole week, VN-Index still increased by 6.23 points (+0.33%).
Regarding the level of impact, GAS, BSR and GVR contributed the most positively in the last session of the week when bringing in more than 6 points of increase for VN-Index. In contrast, VIC's adjustment took away nearly 3 points, putting significant pressure on the general index.
Two large-cap groups, industry and finance, also put significant pressure on the market when many stocks fell by more than 1%. In the opposite direction, energy and utilities led the market with increases of 4.25% and 3% respectively, notably the outstanding increase of BSR (+4.96%), PLX (+5.9%), and GAS increasing to the ceiling price for many sessions.
The stock market at this time is creating a rather "brain-wracking" feeling for many people. VN-Index is standing in the high point zone, looking at it, it seems the market is strong, but in fact it is mainly thanks to a few large stocks pulling points. And most of the stocks out there are still in the low price zone, many stocks are even around the bottom.
According to investors' assessment, the market is currently lacking some factors to be able to rise stronger.
First, there must be a real shake-off, a healthy adjustment session so that investors with weak psychology will sell out. But this possibility is not too high, because in the previous period the market did not have a hot increase, there was no FOMO that was too strong, so the amount of "peak climbing" was actually not much. Second, the signal of bottom-fishing of the market needs to be clearer. In fact, some stocks have begun to show signs of bottom-fishing and cash flow has also begun to return in some industry groups.
In terms of valuation, the projected P/E of VN-Index is about 13.4 times, equivalent to the long-term average. If excluding the Vingroup stock group, a P/E of 10.5 times is still attractive for medium and long-term investment.
In May, many good news continuously appeared to help improve the attractiveness of the Vietnamese market to international capital flows, such as the prestigious credit rating agency Moody's recently raising Vietnam's national credit outlook from "Stable" to "Proactive".
At the same time, there is much information that the Vietnamese stock market may be included in MSCI's tracking list in the June 2026 review, when it has achieved 10/18 criteria on market access and is actively improving the remaining criteria.
Meanwhile, domestic cash flow will be improved thanks to partially relieved macroeconomic pressure as mentioned above. In addition, if Circular 22/2019/TT-NHNN is amended, with reasonable regulations and application roadmap, it can also improve market liquidity.
Regarding market prospects, according to the assessment of the Investment Analysis Department of An Binh Securities Company, in the basic scenario, it is expected that the market will perform positively in May, the VN-Index will surpass the old peak of 1,920 points. Here, the index will accumulate in the peak area with cash flow spreading and liquidity improving, consolidating the upward momentum to then aim for the nearest target in the area of 2,084 - 2,145 points.
Businesses with positive business results prospects, healthy financial structure, high dividends, reasonable valuation and stocks with prospects to be bought by foreign capital when the market is upgraded... are noteworthy stocks.
In a more negative scenario, VN-Index returns to test the support zone of 1,750 - 1,800 points. This may be the area to assess the upward strength of the trend and can be considered a drop in the upward trend.
