After surpassing the peak of 1,920 points, the stock market has shifted to a state of fluctuation and slight correction in the morning session of May 15, when the bluechip stock group increased pressure. Widespread selling pressure increased in this afternoon's session, causing VN-Index to extend its decrease range further.
At one point in the afternoon session, VN-Index decreased by 20 points before closing, narrowing the decline not too deeply thanks to many stock groups suddenly rising sharply.
Closing the trading session on May 15, VN-Index slightly decreased by 3.86 points (-0.2%) to 1.921.6 points. Total trading volume reached 744.6 million units, value 23,053 billion VND, up 10.3% in volume and 4.05% in value compared to yesterday's session.
The VN30 group still traded somewhat more sluggishly than the morning session when closing down more than 18 points, with 21 declining stocks and only 9 increasing stocks. Other quite strong declining stocks such as MWG decreased by 2.6%, VPB decreased by 2.1%, HPG decreased by 1.8%, VPL decreased by 1.6%, BID and FPT both decreased by 1.4%...
In terms of industry groups, the energy group had a bustling trading session when they simultaneously surged in the afternoon session. Specifically, GAS increased to the full range and still had a ceiling buy order of nearly half a million units, PLX increased by 5.9%, BSR increased by 5%, PVD increased by 1.4%, PVT increased by 2.6%, of which BSR traded most actively in the industry with 19.7 million units matched orders.
Rubber stocks still maintain heat, in which in addition to HRC increasing to the ceiling from the morning session, in the afternoon session there was also PHR showing off its purple color, GVR increasing by 4.3%, DPR increasing by 3.2%, TNC increasing by 4%...
Meanwhile, most industry groups in the market adjusted. The banking stock group also reversed to adjust after yesterday's positive session.
According to experts from Rong Viet Securities Company (VDSC), the market is still reflecting quite cautiously despite strong growth in Q1/2026 business results. The upward momentum of the index mainly comes from some individual stocks, while the general valuation level has not expanded commensurate with the announced profit base.
This shows that investors are still skeptical about the durability of the growth cycle, especially in the context of interest rates remaining high and the risk from energy prices not completely cooling down.
Q1/2026 GDP increased by 7.83%, the highest level in the same period since 2011, but still lower than the Government's scenario of 9.1%. VDSC believes that the pressure to maintain high growth in the remaining quarters will cause policies to continue to focus on public investment and support capital flows for the economy. However, weakening trade balance and high interest rates are still factors that need to be monitored because they may affect exchange rate stability and the quality of loans of the banking system.
Regarding profit prospects, VDSC forecasts that after-tax profit for the entire market in Q2/2026 may increase by about 18% compared to the same period, led by real estate and banking. The real estate group is expected to benefit from low foundations and improved project implementation progress, while credit growth will continue to support the banking group even though NIM is still under pressure.
On that basis, VDSC adjusted the target P/E zone of VN-Index down to 12.2x - 14.0x for the next 3-4 months, reflecting the view that interest rates are unlikely to return to the low zone soon. VN-Index is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,623 - 2,317 points, corresponding to a range of -10.7% to +24.9% compared to the closing price on April 29, 2026.
Although not expecting the market to soon enter a strong valuation expansion phase, VDSC believes that there is still room for medium-term recovery if geopolitical risks cool down and domestic support policies are effective.
