In the trading week from April 13-17, the Vietnamese stock market recorded a strong increase right from the beginning of the week. At the end of the week, the VN-Index increased by 67.17 points, equivalent to +3.84% to 1,817.17 points, recording the fourth consecutive week of recovery.
The highlight is VIC stock leading with an increase of nearly 25% and contributing significantly to the increase of VN-Index in the past week, in which there were two sessions 15 and 16. These 4 stocks increased to the ceiling price. Another stock of Vingroup, VHM, also appeared among the best gainers, although the increase was only half of VIC.
Although the liquidity last week did not explode as expected, it was only 6% lower than the 20-week average. Specifically, the average weekly matched order volume on the HOSE exchange reached 893 million shares/session, only down more than 2% compared to the previous week, while the average trading value reached 25,152 billion VND/session, up slightly more than 3%.
Foreign investors continued to have a week of net selling of trillions of VND, in which, the large pair VHM and FPT alone were net sold nearly 5,000 billion VND.
According to the Research Department of SHS (SHS Research), the stock market valuation has returned to a reasonable level with long-term prospects. However, short-term growth is not clear. Therefore, the market is likely to need more accumulation time waiting for fundamentals to improve.
SHS Research believes that the macroeconomic picture in Q1/2026 recorded many bright spots mixed with challenges. Q1 GDP growth reached 7.83%, showing that the economy maintained relatively good absorption capacity against shocks from the conflict in the Middle East. However, in the context of a double-digit growth target for the whole year, the pressure on the remaining three quarters is significant.
In the money market, the USD/VND exchange rate was under increasing pressure at the end of the first quarter, reflecting a trade deficit of about 0.53 billion USD. At the same time, capital mobilization pressure in the banking system returned when the listed interest rate touched the threshold of 10%/year - the highest level in 4 years.
According to SHS Research, the April market began with uncertain risks such as: Expanding geopolitical tensions in the world with a new focus on the Middle East; Reduced credit growth, increased deposit & lending interest rates; High margin lending ratio, increased margin interest rates; Energy crisis, inflation increase, affecting economic growth...
However, there are still many positive factors. First of all, the economy is showing good resilience, with room to manage fiscal policy to support the economy. The market size after a period of decline is at a reasonable level when considering long-term potential.
At the end of March 2026, market capitalization reached approximately 386 billion USD (equivalent to 75% of 2025 GDP). VN-Index has a P/E of 13.8 and a projected P/E of 12.2, which is considered reasonable compared to long-term prospects and regional equivalents.
SHS Research assesses that short-term growth is not clear, while the E/P ratio of 7.3% is not attractive enough compared to savings interest rates. Therefore, the market is likely to need more accumulation time to wait for fundamentals to improve.
In April 2026, the market will monitor information such as Q1/2026 business results, mid-term rating information of FTSE and inflationary pressure, increased costs affecting businesses and the economy in Q2.
SHS Research believes that VN-Index will fluctuate in a narrow range above the support zone around 1,600 points and the resistance zone around 1,750 points. Currently, it is very difficult to find strong growth opportunities in the context that many risky and uncertain factors still dominate the financial market. SHS Research maintains a neutral, cautious view of considering value investment opportunities with high dividend rates, in quality businesses.
