According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, monitoring data and climate forecast models show that the ENSO system is shifting phases from La Nina to neutral and is highly likely to shift to El Nino in the period from June 2026 - August 2026 with a probability of 80 - 90%, then continue to develop and is likely to reach intensity from medium to strong by the end of 2026.
In which, the possibility of very strong El Nino (probably from 20 - 25%) appearing is not ruled out in the period from October 2026 - December 2026 and may extend to 2027.
ENSO is one of the important bases in forecasting climate trends, especially the storm and flood season globally and in Vietnam.
Previously, on April 12, Typhoon Sinlaku (the 4th typhoon operating in the Northwest Pacific region) strengthened into a super typhoon. Sinlaku is one of the rare typhoons to reach super typhoon level in April after Typhoon Surigae (2021) and is only the third super typhoon since 1977.
Currently, Sinlaku is also the strongest storm in the world in 2026, with a central pressure of 920 hPa (as of now), surpassing storm Maila in the Australian region (924 hPa). This is also an early sign of a complicated storm season.
Regarding the storm season in Vietnam, according to Mr. Nguyen Van Huong - Head of Weather Forecast Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, from now until the end of the year, the number of storms and tropical depressions operating in the East Sea will be approximately or lower than the multi-year average and less than in 2025.
According to statistics in the past 60 years, the number of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea has fluctuated little. However, the number of strong storms and tropical depressions is tending to increase. In the context of climate change and the possibility of El Nino appearing in the second half of 2026, the risk of forming strong storms, even super typhoons in the East Sea this year is assessed at a relatively high level" - Mr. Huong analyzed.
According to a representative of the Weather Forecasting Department, forecasting for the rainy season, the number of heavy rains in the Northern, Central and Southern regions will be approximately and lower than the multi-year average, which is about 18 - 20 rains.
The rainy season will mainly focus on the period from June to December" - Mr. Huong said.
Previously, from January to the first half of April 2026, the total rainfall nationwide was generally short of the multi-year average for the same period from 10 - 40%. Especially in provinces from Hue - Quang Ngai and some places in the Central Highlands and Southern regions, the total rainfall was higher by 10 - 40%, especially in Bao Loc (Lam Dong) higher by 59%, Ba Tri (Vinh Long) higher by 84%.
It is noteworthy that in February 2026, the area across the country's total rainfall is generally higher than the multi-year average by 40 - 100%, in some places higher than 100%. In Lai Chau, Dien Bien, Quang Ninh, Hai Phong provinces and some places in the Southern region, the total rainfall shortage is from 40 - 100%.
