Market regains important point threshold
The VN-Index continued to increase and officially surpassed the 1,800 point mark. However, the market breadth is not really consensual as the number of declining stocks is still overwhelming. Cash flow is mainly concentrated in the Vingroup group, while adjustment pressure is present in many other industry groups such as industry, materials and energy.
The market's upward momentum not only comes from cash flow but is also supported by positive macroeconomic information. Expectations for market upgrades from FTSE Russell continue to create a positive psychological effect. At the same time, the market enters the Q1/2026 business results announcement season, with initial information showing positive profits in the banking sector and real estate showing signs of recovery, attracting cash flow.
The fact that VN-Index closed above the 1,800 point mark is assessed by analysts as a signal confirming the medium-term upward trend. However, the differentiation between stock groups shows that cash flow is circulating and strongly filtering.
Analysts from TPS Securities Company believe that the VN-Index increased with a trading volume equivalent to the previous session, but still lower than the 20-session average, showing that the market is starting to become more cautious.
TPS forecasts that VN-Index is not only recovering but is likely to expand into a new upward trend, accordingly, the index may head towards the 1,850 point zone in the upward trend in the near future. With this scenario, any healthy correction will open up opportunities to buy stocks at reasonable prices.
The appropriate strategy in the current period is to continue to hold existing positions, and at the same time selectively buy new ones, especially in healthy correction phases. At the same time, reduce the proportion of stocks in one of two cases, when VN-Index approaches the target of 1,850 points or loses the support zone of 1,686 points," TPS experts gave their opinion.
In the current context, when VN-Index and leading stocks are returning to the historical peak, experts from SHS Securities Company give more cautious assessments. High supply pressure is increasing in many other codes and most other industry groups have a less positive trend. There are not too many opportunities for good investment growth. Investors maintain their current positions, waiting for better trends and cash flow in other industry groups before considering new investment opportunities.
2,000 point target faces many challenges
Mr. Phung Minh Hoang - Strategy Director, Phu Hung Fund Management Company (PHFM) said that if looking back at the end of 2025, the general expectation of investors and securities companies is that corporate profits may increase by 15-18% in 2026. Therefore, the VN-Index target of 2,000 points, according to many organizations' forecasts, is completely grounded.
However, entering early 2026, two "reverse winds" related to interest rates and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have affected the market. Therefore, the VN-Index target of reaching the 2,000 point threshold becomes challenging.
The positive point is that the Vietnamese stock market has just been officially upgraded after a monitoring period, effective from September 2026. It is estimated that Vietnam may account for a proportion of about 0.3-0.4% in FTSE Emerging Markets, corresponding to a passive ETF capital flow of about 1 billion USD, gradually disbursed in 1-2 years. In addition, active capital flows may be larger, estimated at about 2-3 billion USD in the coming years.
Amidst the context of foreign investors continuously net selling for many years, the return of cash flow will be a major driving force for the market. At the same time, the upgrade process also promotes market reform, opening up the possibility of further upgrade to MSCI in the next 3 years, with the potential to attract an additional 3-5 billion USD," Mr. Phung Minh Hoang assessed.
Agreeing with the view that a lot of negative information has partly reflected in the price, making market valuation more attractive, Mr. Phung Minh Hoang said that the current time is an opportunity for disbursement for investors who are holding cash. However, "all-in" should not be done because it is very difficult to accurately determine the market bottom, instead, the appropriate solution is to divide capital to invest in parts.
