Vietnam's stock market recorded a rise for the third week in a row. During the week, the VN-Index has tried to conquer the resistance around the 1,330 area, however, the pressure of profit supply appeared strongly, causing the turn to turn close to 1,310 points in the weekend session. This shows the cautious psychology of investors present.
In addition, the return of foreign investors to net selling has caused fluctuating pressure around the 1,300-point area to continue to face many challenges. This is also a not-so-positive factor in maintaining the upcoming increase.
In the week, VN-Index closed at 1,314.46 points, an increase of 13.07 points, equivalent to 1% compared to the previous week. In terms of influence, Gas, VHM and Gee stocks contribute the most in the process of holding the green for VN-Index in the last session of the week, bringing 2.2 points to increase. Meanwhile, VPL, TCB and VPB shares create the most significant pressure, causing the index to decrease by 1.5 points.
Foreign trading was a negative point last week when it sold strongly with the focus focus at the beginning of the week. In total, after 5 sessions, foreign investors net sold VND779 billion in the whole market.
From the beginning of 2025 until this point, the Vietnamese stock market has witnessed an emotional recovery journey. After falling to bottom in early April from the shock of tax policies, the market recovered strongly from the below 1,100-point area, VN-Index quickly regained the 1,300-point mark, recording an increase of 4.44% compared to the beginning of 2025.
The vibrant trading sessions, and strong leadership from pillar stocks have helped investors have confidence in a big wave coming. However, there is a different reality, that is, although the VN-Index increased by 4.44% since the beginning of the year, the number of stocks that have decreased is overwhelming, accounting for nearly 60% of the total number of stocks on the HOSE.
The main reason for this situation comes from the clear differentiation of the market. Large cash flow is mainly concentrated locally such as Vingroup stocks, Gelex or some bank codes with their own stories.
Statistics show that the top 10 largest contributions to VN-Index from the beginning of 2025 are also mainly names in the three groups above, with a total of nearly 134 points. Notably, Vingroup's shares have contributed nearly 100 points to VN-Index from the beginning of the year while this index only increased by 56 points.
Currently, in their market assessment, analysts of securities companies also have different perspectives. Sharing at the Vietnam program and recent indicators, Mr. Nguyen Viet Duc - Digital Business Director of VPBankS Securities Company Limited (VTCK) commented that he is inclined to a positive scenario.
Specifically, the high tariff scenario will no longer occur, so it will not lead to a change in the supply chain. Another factor is the period of market ups and downs due to concerns about common macro risks.
VPBankS experts also leaned towards a positive scenario in the last 6 months of the year, with the stock market not adjusting deeply and if there is, it will only be at 3 - 5%, then it is the time to buy.
Meanwhile, in the recently published strategy report, An Binh Securities and Investment Analysis Center (ABS Research) stated that this is a market period and the context of not much positive economic information, the market is recovering positively in the short term, while the medium term is not completely clear.
The worst scenario that ABS Research is concerned about is that negative economic and financial factors in the world are getting stronger, without many significant improvements in the prospects of trade agreements, which could cause the market to lose psychological support, causing continued downward pressure on deeper supporting regions. The pressure on investors holding goods will be much greater when cash flow and goods are no longer balanced.
