In the first trading week of the new year 2026, the domestic stock market mixed with world stocks when VN-Index reached a historical high; in the US, indices also strongly broke through to new milestones showing that investor confidence is at a high level.
The VN-Index increased by more than 83 points and closed at 1,867.9 points last week, while liquidity improved significantly compared to previous trading weeks.
According to observations, the Vietnamese stock market has shifted to a more cautious movement as the VN-Index approaches the threshold of 1,900 points.
After a strong and almost continuous upward momentum, the index began to show clearer signs of fluctuations, reflecting the psychology of consideration and selection of cash flow. Liquidity maintained at a high level shows that cash flow has not withdrawn, but is proactively moving and restructuring the portfolio.
From a technical perspective, the fact that VN-Index continues to move steadily on important average lines is playing a role as a psychological support for the medium and long-term uptrend. This "cautious upward" state often appears in periods when the market needs more consensus before entering a new phase of movement. In that context, the market is likely to continue to fluctuate in the direction of accumulation on a high price base to create the necessary balance between supply and demand.
The 1,900-point zone is still an important test, requiring cash flow not only to maintain at a strong level but also needs a wider spread for VN-Index to form a new high price level.
Kafi Securities Company believes that the return of cash flow to the market is a positive signal for the upcoming trend. However, in the short term, with the index increasing rapidly and strongly breaking through the psychological resistance level of 1,800 points, the possibility of an adjustment phase appearing is high. Accordingly, the 1,800-1,830 point zone will play a role as a near support zone, which needs to be monitored during the adjustment phase to assess supply - demand and momentum for efforts to reconquer the 1,900 point mark.
Regarding the scenario for this week, DSC Securities Company also gave its opinion that foreign investors are likely to maintain a net buying position. However, the market may enter a period of accumulation again after a week of positive gains. In particular, the banking stock group with state-controlled capital - which has increased to the ceiling level continuously in the last 3-4 sessions - will begin to face profit-taking pressure, thereby creating certain adjustment pressure on the index in the first sessions of the week. However, this is only a short-term pressure; the market is expected to soon rebalance and cash flow will gradually spread to other industry groups.
Regarding the liquidity of the market, according to the analysis of experts from HSC Securities Company, cash flow in the market recorded a clear shift to the "state-owned enterprises" group, thereby playing a leading role and creating an important push to help VN-Index surpass the old peak zones. This development is not only short-term technical, but also reflects a notable change in investors' expectations for the group of stocks associated with the state economic sector.
The driving force for the rotation of cash flow was strongly strengthened after the Politburo issued Resolution No. 79-NQ/TW, emphasizing the strategic role of the state-owned economic sector in the next development period. The Resolution sets ambitious goals for 2030, including the formation of leading state-owned commercial banks in Asia and raising the scale of many state-owned enterprises on the regional and global enterprise map.
In that context, banks such as CTG, BID and VCB emerge as typical representatives, both playing a pillar role in terms of indices and directly benefiting from long-term policy orientations. These stocks are likely to continue to be the focus of market attention in 2026.
