VN-Index closed 2025 around the historical peak of 1,784.49 points, with an increase of more than 40% compared to the beginning of the year. However, looking back on the entire journey of the year, the stock market has experienced a picture intertwined between positive and cautious aspects, with an unbalanced upward momentum and limited spread.
Regarding liquidity, the stock market is currently in the middle of a quiet trading phase, due to lack of momentum. In addition, the liquidity demand in the banking system is creating certain pressure on the interest rate level in the short term. Therefore, the decline in trading volume at the present time is a relatively easy-to-explain development.
Investors expect liquidity to recover more clearly from the second half of the first quarter of 2026 onwards, as policy changes in 2025 begin to "penetrate" into the economy and the FTSE Russell market ranking organization reaffirms the upgrade results after the March 2026 assessment period, thereby creating a premise for foreign capital to return to interest.
From an overall perspective, the stock market is still in a long-term uptrend. The investment story aimed at in 2026 will revolve around the main topics: first, public investment continues to lead growth; second, tax reform and social security policies help increase available income; third, export and service industries are forecast to grow positively; fourth, the stock market is upgraded.
ABS Securities Company forecasts that VN-Index in 2026 will surpass the 2025 peak and aim for 1,940 points in a cautious scenario. In a positive scenario, the index may reach the milestone of 2,040 - 2,084 - 2,188 points. The valuation level has been raised thanks to the improvement in business efficiency of businesses and cash flow into the market, on the basis that the interest rate level, although increasing, is still maintained in a reasonable range and foreign capital flows return when the Vietnamese stock market has been upgraded by FTSE Russell to a emerging market.
In terms of real investment, Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Director of Investment Strategy of DG Capital, said that VN-Index is likely to move sideways in the first trading week of 2026. The upward trend from the last week of December 2025 is still being maintained, but the market will have to face significant supply around the important psychological resistance zone of 1,800 points, mixed-sum and negative fluctuations.
Looking more broadly, according to the basic scenario of TVS Securities Company, VN-Index is likely to continue to expand its upward inertia from the upward trend formed in 2025 and towards new peaks.
This development is supported by many fundamental drivers, including the "money-pumping" policy to complete the economic growth target of 10% or more, the official upgrade of the Vietnamese stock market to a secondary emerging market according to FTSE Russell's classification, along with the emergence of new fields such as artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies. In addition, the positive effects from the state capital divestment plan and the IPO wave continuing from 2025 are also expected to contribute to attracting more cash flow to the market.
Regarding risks for the stock market in 2026, experts believe that they may come from uncertainty in US trade policy as well as global geopolitical developments.
Domestically, the deposit interest rate level of the commercial banking system is forecast to increase by an average of 0.25–0.5% in 2026, continuing the trend that has formed since the fourth quarter of 2025. This pressure comes from the need to maintain competition in capital mobilization between banks, high credit growth requirements and the need to balance liquidity.
Although the slightly increased deposit interest rate may somewhat affect the transaction value on the stock market, experts believe that investor sentiment is gradually adapting to this trend. At the same time, the Vietnamese stock market is still supported by many growth drivers in 2026, while the current valuation level of VN-Index is still more attractive than past price increase cycles.
