Fed cuts interest rates for the third time, reveals scenario next year

Khánh Minh |

The Fed has just cut interest rates by another 0.25% - the third consecutive cut - bringing key interest rates down to around 3.6%, the lowest level in nearly 3 years.

However, Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could temporarily suspend the easing momentum in the next few months to "carefully" monitor economic developments before deciding on the next step.

At a press conference on December 10 after the decision, Mr. Powell said the Fed was in a good position to wait and see how the economy develops, while emphasizing that interest rates are now approaching trung binh levels, meaning they are not stimulating or holding back growth. However, the Fed's quarterly economic forecast shows that officials expect only one more cut next year.

Notably, the internal division of the Fed is rising: Three officials voted against it - the highest in six years. The two want to keep rates unchanged, while Stephen Miran - appointed by President Donald Trump in September - voted to support stronger cuts, up to half a percentage point.

This signals that the December meeting could open a more intense debate period between the party that wants to cut interest rates to support jobs and the party that prioritizes curbing inflation is still above the 2% target.

President Donald Trump immediately criticized the rate cut as too small, saying he wanted the cut to at least double. The US leader could also nominate a new Fed president this month as Powell's term is about to end in May - a move that could promote a stronger cut.

The stock market reacted positively: The S&P 500 index increased by 0.7% and approached a historical peak, partly because investors expected Mr. Powell not to completely close the door to interest rate cuts in the future.

World gold prices increased to 4,225.74 USD/ounce, up 18.71 USD, equivalent to an increase of 0.44%.

Mr. Powell expressed his expectation that the US economy will be "healthier" next year, thanks to persistent consumption and businesses continuing to invest in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. He also said that improving labor productivity can support growth.

However, the picture of the platform economy still has many risks. According to the forecast of 19 members of the Open Market Committee (FOMC), the interest rate cut in 2026 is being strongly divided: Seven people predict not to cut, eight want to cut twice or more, four people only want to cut once. Only 12 out of 19 people have the right to vote.

The Fed made the decision in the context of inflation still putting great pressure on the American people: Food prices, rental, and utilities increased sharply, causing total consumer spending to skyrocket by 25% in just 5 years.

Meanwhile, the labor market is clearly weakening: New employment has decreased sharply, the unemployment rate has increased for three consecutive months to 4.4% - the highest level in four years.

However, Mr. Powell still saw a positive signal: Service costs are almost flat, and if the impact of tariffs is ruled out, inflation is falling to the low 2% zone.

Mr. Powell said he wanted to leave a healthy economy before leaving office with 2% inflation and a solid labor market. But with internal division and increased political pressure, that journey will certainly not be easy.

Khánh Minh
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