The stock market is witnessing strong liquidity increases after successfully conquering the threshold of 1,300 points. Looking back at the market developments from the beginning of 2025 to now, the VN-Index has a trend of accumulation going up, with the range gradually narrowing.
The resistance zone of 1,280 - 1,300 points that has lasted for nearly a year was broken at the end of February 2025, accompanied by increased liquidity, showing positive absorption demand.
In terms of liquidity, the trading value in the most recent sessions of the stock market has returned to more than VND 22,000 billion, far exceeding the liquidity of the lowest session of December 2024 by about VND 7,000 billion. If liquidity continues to increase, it means that there is cash flow flow flowing into the market.
In March, many macro factors will affect the stock market. In the world, the US economy has made positive progress as production continues to recover strongly for the second consecutive month and is the strongest growth rate since June 2022.
Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector in the EU and UK continues to shrink. The ECB has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 0.9%, down from the previous forecast of 1.1%. In addition, China's manufacturing sector has shown signs of a slight recovery, although not solid due to the seasonality after the Lunar New Year holiday.
In Vietnam, production continued to shrink for the third consecutive month, showing that the manufacturing industry is still having difficulty regaining growth momentum. However, China has been stepping up its supply chain to Vietnam amid the risks of an existing trade war.
The Government has also proposed many solutions to continue focusing on implementing to support the economy such as promoting streamlining and restructuring the management apparatus, solving bottlenecks to accelerate public investment.
In the financial market, the State Bank has issued a directive on stabilizing deposit interest rates, causing deposit interest rates to be adjusted down at many banks. The KRX trading system has also provided information on the official implementation roadmap, expected in the second quarter of 2025.
Mr. Nguyen Minh Hoang - Director of Analysis at VFS Securities Company - said that the liquidity of the Vietnamese stock market has recently been very positive. If the strong cash flow continues to be maintained as it is now, the VN-Index will witness even higher milestones.
"Even if this year, the market witnessed breakthrough liquidity sessions to VND 25,000 - 28,000 billion, investors can completely expect the VN-Index to reach the 1,400 point mark. In addition, if liquidity reaches VND 25,000-26,000 billion, it will be the driving force for the main index to continue to increase," said this expert.
Commenting on the market in March, analysts from ABS Securities Company pointed out 2 scenarios.
That positive scenario is that the VN-Index will increase to 1,340 - 1,350 points. However, in this scenario, the market will quickly increase to the target price range of 1,340 - 1,350 points without adjusting accumulation. At that time, investor sentiment can easily reach a state of excitement when good information is continuously released. The necessary action is to prioritize psychological management and portfolio management, avoiding fomo following the price increase.
"The price range of 1,350 points is very easy to cause excitement, creating a fomo. Investors should be vigilant at this stage with signs of heating up, profit-taking and cash flow reversal in hot-growing stocks," ABS Research emphasized.
With a more cautious scenario, ABS experts believe that the VN-Index can increase to 1,325 - 1,330 points and adjust to support 1,290 - 1,270 points and then increase again. In this scenario, when the market enters the resistance zone of 1,325 - 1330 points, there will be an accumulated adjustment.
