The stock market continued to record a positive trading week after surpassing the resistance level of 1,300 points, with 4 out of 5 sessions increasing points. Trading liquidity has continuously improved steadily throughout the week, along with the increase of the general index, showing that cash flow is still participating in strong disbursement.
In which, the group of stocks attracting cash flow is mainly the large-cap group. VN-Index closed at 1,326.05 points, equivalent to an increase of 20.69 points (+1.59%) compared to last week.
It can be seen that the psychology of investors in the market has been removed and the cash flow into the stock market is increasing. There have been a return of some trading sessions with the number of shares on hand up to 1 billion shares and market liquidity at over 20,000 billion VND. The massive cash flow into the market pushed the prices of a series of stocks up spectacularly.
Regarding foreign transactions, foreign capital flows continue to have a strong net selling momentum. Despite unexpectedly breaking the streak of 10 consecutive sales when they returned to net buying in the session on Thursday, the group of foreign investors quickly turned around to net sell on the weekend. Accumulated after 5 sessions, foreign investors net sold VND 969 billion in the whole market.
According to the assessment of Dragon Capital Securities Company (VDSC), the market will maintain positive momentum and a re-evaluation trend in March, with a target of P/E of 13.3x.
The factors that will support this positive trend pointed out by VDSC are, firstly, the waiting for positive information about upgrading the Vietnamese market by FTSE in March, when Vietnam has fully met the criteria.
Secondly, information about putting the KRX trading system into operation has positive signals when the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HoSE) has just issued an official dispatch to relevant securities companies on February 26, 2025 regarding data preparation for system testing.
Third, the Government is very determined to achieve the economic growth target of 8% in 2025. This means that the credit environment and administrative procedures will be managed in a supportive direction to facilitate the expansion of private investment.
In addition, the listed companies' stock market season will provide new information on expansion plans, business and dividend budgets, which can boost stock prices.
VDSC also pointed out market risk factors that investors need to pay attention to. That is an increased risk from trade tensions between the US - China and long-standing allies. This could affect global markets, especially expectations for inflation, growth and monetary policy. VDSC believes that the global market may witness a strong fluctuation like what happened in 2018 when the parties have not reached a common voice.
However, the downside risk of the Vietnamese stock market is considered lower than that of global markets thanks to market valuation and attractive growth prospects compared to the region and the world, as well as the possibility of taxing Vietnam this year is very low and can benefit from competition between superpowers.
From the above analysis factors, VDSC expects the VN-Index to fluctuate between 1,280 - 1,350 points. The above positive factors will help the VN-Index reach the target of P/E of 13.3x, but risks from trade unions or FTSE not upgrading Vietnam can cause the market to adjust.
