VN-Index closed last trading week at 1,691 points, equivalent to an increase of 2.18% compared to the closing price at the end of last week. The average weekly matched trading value reached VND18,627 billion, 13% lower than the 20-session average.
Mr. Nguyen Anh Khoa - Head of Analysis and Investment Consulting Department of Agriseco Securities Company - gave the reasons why cash flow is temporarily out of observation.
First, VN-Index is approaching the strong resistance zone around the 1,700 point mark. This has led investors to limit new disbursement due to concerns about the risk of adjustment at high prices.
Second, many stocks have experienced a fairly good increase in the previous period, typically the banking group, securities... leading to caution in disbursing again after the profit-taking period.
Third, after the third quarter 2025 business results announcement season, the market is in a short-term information gap, causing active cash flow to tend to stand out from observation.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong - Director of Strategic Investment of DG Capital - commented that every year, the liquidity of the stock market shrinks at the end of the year, especially in December and January, before Tet. Considering both valuation and interest rates at this time, there is no support for the explosive liquidity trend again, first of all, deposit interest rates are still under pressure to increase.
Looking at the medium term, Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong said that credit growth, including strong growth in real estate lending, will slow down capital turnover in the economy. That is the reason why it is difficult to expect abundant capital to flow into the stock market as the first stage of the increase cycle.
Explaining the choice of individual investors to "stand outside" during this period, Mr. Huynh Anh Huy - CFA, Director of Industry Analysis at Kafi Securities Company - gave the viewpoint and risk appetite of the group of individual investors often associated with market trends. Individual investors tend to participate more strongly when the VN-Index enters a clear increase, liquidity improves and the opportunity to "surf" becomes attractive.
However, in the current context, the developments of the market in general and each group of stocks in particular are becoming unpredictable, with a narrow range of fluctuations and continuous hois and declines. This significantly reduces the probability of success of short-term trading strategies, because the risk of information interference and sao increase is higher than normal.
"Therefore, it is understandable that the majority of individual investors choose to observe instead of trading positively. When the market has not yet formed a strong enough trend and the supporting factors are not clear, the cautious mentality dominates, causing speculative cash flow to temporarily withdraw. This is also the period when the market often goes through differentiation and accumulation, requiring patience before a new trend is established," said Mr. Huynh Anh Huy.
Commenting on when cash flow will return strongly, Mr. Huy said that the market needs to converge all the attractive fundamental factors, in which valuation plays a key role. If businesses continue to record positive business results, the market P/E coefficient will likely be adjusted to a lower level, creating a better safe margin and opening up opportunities to attract cash flow back.
Entering early 2026, the market is likely to receive a series of important information on macro orientation, including growth targets, fiscal and monetary policies and key public investment programs. These orientations will contribute to strengthening expectations for Vietnam's economic prospects in the new year, thereby improving investor sentiment and increasing excitement for the stock market.
In addition, the possibility of the Fed implementing another interest rate cut at the end of December could create momentum for foreign capital flows, especially in the context of a global interest rate environment gradually becoming more supportive for emerging markets.
Summarizing the above positive factors, Mr. Huynh Anh Huy predicted that the early 2026 period could become an important trigger, attracting cash flow back strongly after a long period of market accumulation and stagnation.
