Import lines mainly serve production
In the first 8 months of 2026, Vietnam imported 395.3 billion USD of goods, an increase of 35.3% compared to the same period last year and faster than the 22.4% increase of exports, according to data from the Statistics Office.
The noteworthy point lies in the type of goods imported. Production materials reached 372.04 billion USD, accounting for 94.1% of total import turnover. In which, electronics, computers and components ranked first with 161.63 billion USD, up 68.3% over the same period. Machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts reached 47.4 billion USD, up 22.1%.
These two groups alone reached more than 209 billion USD, equivalent to nearly 53% of Vietnam's total import turnover in 8 months.
Some other input groups also increased quite strongly. Porcelain metals reached 9.83 billion USD, up 34.8%; products from iron and steel reached 6.49 billion USD, up 24.8%. Meanwhile, fabric imports increased by 2.5% and raw materials and accessories for textiles, garments, and footwear increased by 3.5%.
In the model adjusted for Vietnam, the IMF determined that imports have a fairly close relationship with domestic economic activities. The report also noted that a large part of imported goods is used as inputs for export production.
The 8-month import structure also shows that the current increase mainly focuses on production materials, instead of consumer goods.
The foreign-invested enterprise sector also imported more strongly. In 8 months, the FDI sector imported 290.23 billion USD, up 40.1%, while the domestic economic sector imported 105.07 billion USD, up 23.7%.
Factory increases output, investment capital continues into production
Raw material and equipment supply increased while the operation of the industrial sector is also better.
The Industrial Production Index (IIP) in 8 months increased by 11.6% compared to the same period. In August alone, industrial output increased by 12.6% compared to the same period last year.
S&P Global's survey also recorded similar developments. Vietnam's manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3 points, up from 52.9 points in July. The index above 50 points shows that manufacturing activities continue to expand.
Production at factories increased the fastest in more than 2 years. New orders also increased the most since October last year. Due to higher production demand, businesses continue to increase purchasing raw materials and inputs.
Mr. Andrew Harker - Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence - commented: "Vietnam's manufacturing industry growth began to strengthen in the middle of the third quarter of the year.
Not only goods, the flow of foreign investment capital actually entering the economy also increased.
In 8 months, disbursed FDI capital reached about 17.25 billion USD, an increase of 12% compared to the same period and the highest level in the 8-month period in the last 5 years. Notably, about 14.24 billion USD, equivalent to 82.6%, was poured into the processing and manufacturing industry.
These figures show that capital flows and input flows are clearly concentrated in the manufacturing sector. In the technical assistance report released at the end of August, the IMF also dedicated a part to analyzing private investment in Vietnam.
According to the IMF model built, business investment decisions are clearly influenced by two factors: business operations and cost of capital. When the economy and production improve, businesses have more motivation to buy machinery and expand factories. Conversely, increased borrowing costs may make investment plans more carefully considered.
Output is still a factor that businesses must calculate
The August picture is also not completely even. S&P Global recorded a sharp increase in total new orders, but new export orders fell slightly for the first time in four months amid geopolitical instability. Manufacturers' confidence in output in the coming year also decreased compared to July.
This partly explains why current production may increase rapidly, but deciding to invest capital in a multi-year project still requires more time. Businesses not only look at the number of existing orders but also have to calculate future purchasing power, export capacity and borrowing costs.
From another perspective, strong import growth also makes foreign currency demand greater because businesses have to buy USD to pay foreign partners.
Mr. Ngo Dang Khoa - National Director of Capital, Currency and Stock Market Business Division of HSBC Vietnam - assessed that, first of all, this is a positive development for growth.
From a growth perspective, this is a positive sign," Mr. Khoa assessed, while saying that the import of machinery, components and raw materials shows that businesses are preparing for production and investment.
According to Mr. Khoa, the other side is that when imports increase, the demand for USD for payments also increases. However, HSBC's basic scenario is still that USD/VND increases at a moderate level. Economic growth, FDI disbursement, tourism and exports continue to be sources of support for the foreign exchange market.
In August alone, the trade balance was also close to returning to a balanced state. Vietnam exported 54.79 billion USD and imported 54.91 billion USD, a difference of about 120 million USD.
With long-term expansion plans, export prospects and cost of capital are still factors that businesses must consider.
