Securities companies assess this as an important step before the upgrade of the Vietnamese stock market officially takes effect from September 21, and at the same time opens up expectations to welcome large-scale capital flows from global investment funds.
According to FTSE Russell's roadmap, all Vietnamese stocks will be removed from the FTSE Frontier Index Series in the September 2026 annual review period, and will be added to the FTSE Global Equity Index Series in several phases.
Vietcap Securities Company has just announced a forecast list of 29 stocks eligible to participate in the index basket for emerging markets. According to Vietcap, this number is significantly higher than the portfolio of only 23 stocks that FTSE Russell previously announced.
The forecast is built on market data updated to June 30, 2026 and complies with FTSE Global Equity Index Series Ground Rules. Meanwhile, FTSE Russell's reference portfolio is made based on data closing on December 31, 2025.
The six-month gap causes many important factors such as stock price, capitalization available for investment, free float ratio, liquidity and foreign ownership room to change significantly, thereby changing the list of enterprises meeting standards.
According to Vietcap, there are 29 Vietnamese stocks eligible to join FTSE GEIS, including 4 large-cap stocks (Large Cap), 5 medium-cap stocks (Mid Cap) and 20 small-cap stocks (Small Cap). According to Vietcap, the upgrade will open up room to attract significant international capital flows.
Notably, 4 stocks appearing in FTSE's reference portfolio but no longer meeting the criteria according to Vietcap's updated data include BSR, DGC, GEE and KDH. In which, BSR and KDH no longer meet the minimum capitalization threshold.
On the contrary, Vietcap forecasts that there will be 10 more qualified stocks that have not appeared in the FTSE reference list, including VPB, HDB, SSB, MSB, TPB, HCM, VPL, MCH, TCX and VCK.
According to Vietcap, these are all businesses that have met the screening criteria after data is updated until the end of June 2026.
For newly listed companies, FTSE Russell will continue to consider including it in the index according to the same roadmap of multiple phases, provided that it fully meets the criteria of available capitalization for investment, liquidity, free float ratio and foreign ownership room.
This securities company estimates that there are currently about 1.4 trillion USD of assets being managed by passive investment funds simulating related FTSE indices. When the proportion of Vietnamese stocks is fully added to the indices, passive capital flows may flow into the market reaching about 1.5 billion USD.
According to FTSE's forecast proportion as of March 31, 2026, Vietnam will account for about 0.034% in the FTSE Global All Cap index, 0.329% in the FTSE Emerging All Cap, 0.020% in the FTSE All-World and 0.192% in the FTSE Emerging.
Not only passive ETF funds, Vietcap believes that active investment funds may also start disbursing early into large-cap stock groups to prepare for reference to new indices after Vietnam is upgraded.
Some international organizations also made positive forecasts about the scale of foreign capital flows. According to Vietcap's summary, many estimates show that total investment capital flows, including both passive and active capital, could reach about 3-6 billion USD within 12-18 months after Vietnam is upgraded.
According to Vietcap's assessment, proactive capital disbursement first, combined with passive capital after the indicators complete the restructuring process, may contribute to improving the net selling trend of foreign investors in recent years. However, the scale and actual disbursement speed will still depend on many factors such as market valuation, exchange rate developments as well as the risk appetite of international capital for emerging markets.
