In the last trading week of July, the Vietnamese stock market recorded a positive recovery after a fairly strong correction at the beginning of the week. VN-Index at one point retreated to the 1,660 point zone before bottom-fishing demand increased, creating momentum for the index to regain its upward momentum.
The recovery momentum was maintained in most of the mid- and weekend sessions, helping VN-Index surpass the 1,750 point mark before undergoing slight profit-taking pressure in the last session of the week. At the end of the week, VN-Index stopped at 1,735.78 points, up nearly 50 points compared to the previous week.
However, for the whole month of July, VN-Index lost more than 124 points, equivalent to a decrease of 6.68%. This is the second consecutive month the market has declined. The adjustment trend in this month is somewhat stronger when the general index only slightly decreased by 0.19% in June.
The VN-Index has broken a series of important psychological thresholds in July, at times losing nearly 15% compared to its historical peak. The index has just recovered in the most recent trading sessions, regaining the 1,700 point mark, but the risk of correction is still present.
After a strong correction, the market P/E ratio is currently at 11.9 times, significantly lower than some markets in the region such as Thailand (16.1), Malaysia (15.2), Singapore (17.3). P/E slippage (calculated in the last 12 months) was sometimes about 10 times, around the lowest level in 10 years.
The market has seen a series of leading stocks fall to the lowest level in many years for investors to consider. For example, in the banking group, there are VCB, CTG, EIB, TPB... falling to the lowest level in a year; while securities have SSI, VIX, VCI. In the real estate group, KDH at one point returned to the price range at the end of 2022, while NLG was at the beginning of 2023.
PNJ shares fell to their lowest level since October 2020, nearly 6 years ago, due to legal and corporate governance risks, before signaling a strong recovery.
Some stocks are trading at a valuation equivalent to the period after the US announced counterpart tax policies in April 2025, which is the lowest for about a year and a half. The current price range, according to analysts, is creating opportunities for stock accumulation of businesses with good foundations, stable profit growth and high asset quality for a 2-3 year investment vision.
The question that many investors raise in the current context, is this a suitable time to start disbursing or should we wait for the market to stabilize more? If many stocks are "cheap", does buying mean a high chance of winning or do we still need to pay attention to any risks?
The market is in a reasonable to attractive range, especially if corporate profits continue to grow in the coming time. However, if excluding Vingroup stocks, a group with very high valuations and greatly affecting the index, the P/E ratio of the remaining part of the market is only about 10.8 times, while P/B ratio is still around 1.7-1.8 times. This shows that most stocks are currently valued quite attractively, especially banking, securities and many non-financial enterprises.
Attractive valuation is a necessary condition, but not a sufficient condition for the market to increase immediately. Stock prices in the short term are still affected by investor sentiment, cash flow and macroeconomic factors. Therefore, fluctuations are completely normal.
The current phase may start disbursing partially, if investors want to pour long-term capital. But instead of "pouring" all the money at once, the recommendation given by experts is to disburse about 30% of the portfolio in front of leading businesses with solid financial foundations and clear growth prospects.
The remaining money, investors should keep to increase the proportion when the market appears with corrections or when the upward trend is clearer. This method helps buyers not miss the upward wave, while keeping reserve resources when the market fluctuates.
Conversely, with a short-term surfing strategy, investors need to be more patient when the market appears with alternating up and down sessions and fast cash flow rotation between industry groups.
Chasing after strong gaining sessions may increase the risk ratio. Buyers should wait for corrections to the support zone, stocks confirm an upward trend and market liquidity improve.
