On August 21, FTSE Russell will officially announce the list of stocks included in the FTSE Global Equity Index Series (FTSE GEIS) for emerging markets. This list will take effect from September 21, 2026.
And according to estimates by MB Securities Company (MBS), the total capital flow into the Vietnamese stock market after upgrading may reach about 6 billion USD, including both active and passive funds.
If only considering the passive capital flow from ETFs simulating the FTSE index set, the Vietnamese stock market can attract about 1.5 billion USD within one year from the time of being upgraded.
This capital flow will not be disbursed at the same time but will be allocated by FTSE according to a roadmap of four phases, lasting from September 2026 to September 2027, to help the transition process take place smoothly and limit the impact on the market.
The first phase is expected to take place from September 21, 2026, when Vietnam is officially withdrawn from the FTSE Frontier Index to join the new market group.At that time, about 10% of total capital flow, equivalent to 150 million USD, is expected to be disbursed.
The second allocation phase will take place in the semi-annual restructuring period in March 2027 (effective from March 22, 2027), with a proportion of 20%, equivalent to about 300 million USD.
The remaining two phases are implemented in the restructuring periods of June and September 2027. Each phase accounts for 35% of total capital flow, equivalent to about USD 525 million. After the restructuring period takes effect from September 20, 2027, the capital allocation process according to FTSE's upgrade roadmap is expected to be completed.
According to MBS's forecast portfolio, the FTSE index basket for Vietnam may include about 30 stocks. Among them, large-cap stocks will be gradually bought by ETF funds throughout the disbursement process to limit the impact on prices. Meanwhile, the group of mid-cap and small-cap stocks is likely to be bought more strongly in the final stages as the scale of capital flows increases.
According to MBS's estimates, VIC is the stock that was net bought the most with about 46.4 million USD, equivalent to about 1.19% of the average trading value of 10 sessions. Ranked after is VHM with about 16 million USD, MSN and SHB with about 9.2 million USD, SSI about 7.5 million USD.
The FTSE Russell event expected to announce the official list of Vietnamese stocks meeting the criteria to enter the FTSE Global Equity Index Series basket in the September semi-annual review is expected to create more momentum for foreign capital flows and increase interest in some large-cap stocks.
