In the past time, cash flow on the stock market has mainly focused on some large-cap stocks. Entering July is a rather specific month in terms of information.
This is a trough of macroeconomic data - not many Fed events, no pre-determined major trade tensions - but it is the peak of the Q2/2026 business results season.
This creates a trading environment where the story of each business and each industry will be revalued very clearly by the market.
According to the assessment of analysts from MB Securities Company, the stock market is likely still in need of the leadership of large capitalization groups, especially banks. This is a group that both has a large proportion in the index and has the ability to attract institutional cash flow when the market approaches important technical milestones.
For the banking group, the supporting factor comes from the fact that the State Bank has officially approved the draft Circular 25/2026/TT-NHNN with the main highlight coming from increasing the maximum ratio of short-term capital used for medium and long-term lending (SMLR) from 30% to 40%, effective from July 1, 2026.
The new regulation helps reduce technical pressure on the term structure of capital sources - capital use in the context that credit growth is still faster than mobilization. The State Bank has also issued Official Dispatch 5368/NHNN-TD, allowing the exclusion of outstanding debt of 18 key infrastructure projects from the credit room of commercial banks, which shows that the direction of maintaining high credit growth is still being prioritized.
The second group to pay attention to is seaport and export enterprises. In the second quarter of 2026, Vietnam's import and export turnover grew strongly thanks to the early peak season effect, creating positive production growth momentum for the entire seaport group, and export data in the first half of June of the export enterprise group was also very positive, with many investment opportunities for these industry groups.
Analysts from Kafi Securities Company place the highest expectations on Banking and Real Estate - two groups directly untied by Circular 25 of the SBV. The effect of this policy will gradually permeate into the business results and income expectations of these two groups in the second half of the year.
If cash flow starts revaluing this story, there is a solid basis for the index to retest the old resistance zones that were broken before.
However, experts do not expect cash flow to spread evenly like the broad wave period. The cash flow structure in July will be selective: focusing on large-cap and mid-cap stocks with solid foundations - that is, stocks with clear business results stories, not heavily dependent on external factors and not heavily affected by exchange rates or tariffs.
Regarding the factors that help cash flow spread more strongly, there are two things. One is that the business results of the second quarter of 2026 must show widespread improvement, not only concentrated in a few leading enterprises.
When investors see profit recovery in many different industry groups, confidence is large enough for cash flow to flow into the market evenly.
Two is that the general level of interest rates needs to have a clearer cooling signal. As long as deposit interest rates remain high, idle money will still prioritize depositing in banks instead of flowing into stocks.
