Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalating after military moves between the US, Israel and Iran are causing the global financial market to face many unpredictable fluctuations. Oil and gold prices are forecast to increase sharply, while investor sentiment is becoming more cautious in the face of the risk of widespread conflict. In that context, the Vietnamese stock market is forecast to be affected in a certain way, but the extent of the impact depends on the actual developments of the regional situation.
Mr. Dinh Minh Tri, Director of Personal Customer Analysis, Mirae Asset Securities Joint Stock Company (MAS), said that geopolitical tensions between the US, Israel and Iran may create certain impacts on the stock market in the short term, but the level of impact is not too serious.
According to him, this development is not entirely unexpected as before that investors had partly grasped information about the US force mobilization. Therefore, the risk factor has been partly reflected in the stock price, the possibility of a major shock is not high. The market is likely to move in a differentiated direction instead of falling simultaneously.
In the positive group, oil and gas stocks are assessed to benefit clearly in the context of world oil prices expected to increase sharply. Petroleum exploitation, service and distribution enterprises may record more positive developments than the general level, typically such as GAS, PVD, PVS, BSR, PLX.
In addition, the gold trading group and related businesses also benefited when gold prices increased according to investors' defensive sentiment. PNJ is forecast to record positive developments.
In the opposite direction, industries with input costs heavily dependent on oil prices will be under pressure. The aviation group is assessed to be clearly affected because fuel accounts for a large proportion of the cost structure, including Vietnam Airlines and Vietjet Air.
The steel, cement, and construction plastic industries... may also be affected when energy prices increase, increasing production costs. Some businesses may be affected such as Binh Minh Plastics, Tien Phong Plastics, Ha Tien 1 Cement and steel enterprises due to increased input costs.
However, Mr. Tri believes that overall, the market is unlikely to experience a widespread sell-off scenario. The conflict in the Middle East is not directly related to Vietnam, so the main impact comes from psychological factors and the intercommunication between investment channels.
He noted that when gold and oil prices increase sharply, cash flow tends to shift to defensive assets. This may cause stock market liquidity to decline in the short term, investors to be more cautious and limit large-scale disbursement.
The biggest risk lies in the scenario of a widespread or prolonged conflict, especially if it affects the Strait of Hormuz - a shipping route accounting for about 20% of global oil supply. If supply is seriously disrupted and oil prices skyrocket, the impact on the global economy will be more pronounced, when many energy-sensitive stock groups may be under pressure to fall sharply.
According to him, it is necessary to monitor three main scenarios including: short-term impacts for one to two weeks; prolonged tensions for several months; and a prolonged conflict scenario similar to Russia-Ukraine. Each scenario will create different levels of volatility for the financial market.
In the current context, the basic scenario is still a differentiated market, the level of impact is moderate and no signs of widespread panic have appeared. However, geopolitical uncertainty is still a variable that needs to be closely monitored in the coming time.
