Tensions around Greenland have cooled down, but global investors still cling to safe-haven assets. Spot gold prices continued to move to the 5,000 USD/ounce mark even as US stocks recovered, ignoring the wave of geopolitical concerns at the beginning of the week. Silver first surpassed $100 in Friday's session, while platinum climbed above $2,700, showing a widespread increase across the entire group of precious metals.
The current defensive momentum is no longer linked to a specific event, but leans towards structural risks from fiscal sustainability concerns, long-term policy uncertainties to changes in the global power landscape. Investors seem to be hedging against the possibility of an unexpected event that could reduce the attractiveness of US assets, even when no clear crisis has emerged.
In that context, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold price forecast by more than 10%, reflecting the trend of diversifying assets to gold in the private sector, in parallel with strong buying demand from central banks and accumulated capital into ETF funds. In a report on January 21, Goldman's analysis team including Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas raised the December 2026 gold price target to 5,400 USD/ounce, compared to the previous level of 4,900 USD. According to this bank, policy risk hedging positions – especially from private investors – are likely to be maintained until the end of the year.
Goldman also emphasized that, contrary to previous hedge transactions that often fluctuated according to prominent events such as the 2024 US election, fundamental risks – especially the fiscal story and changes in global power structure – are unlikely to be addressed in the short term. This makes the hedge demand for gold more "durable and persistent".
David Roche, a strategist at Quantum Strategy, believes that a new world order is taking shape, in which central banks continue to increase their gold-to-currency ratios. Answering CNBC, he said gold could reach $6,000 if the policy trajectory continues in the current direction.
The escalation of gold prices has increased by more than 70% in the past 12 months – driven by hedge funds and volatile global political and economic contexts. President Donald Trump's continuous criticism of the Federal Reserve (Fed) also contributes to shaking confidence in the independence of the US central bank, thereby further strengthening the need to find assets less dependent on monetary policy.
Gold buying activity by central banks is forecast to reach an average of 60 tons per month in 2026, especially from emerging economies – where demand for diversifying foreign exchange reserves to gold continues to increase. At the same time, the amount of gold held by ETF funds in the West has increased by more than 500 tons since the beginning of 2025, far exceeding forecasts based on US interest rate adjustments. Goldman expects the Fed to further reduce by a total of 50 basis points in 2026, continuing to create a favorable environment for non-profit assets such as gold.
The trend called "devaluation avoidance transactions" including buying physical gold from the super-rich and options trading are also playing an important role in pulling gold prices up to new price ranges.
However, Goldman noted that downside risks may arise if the level of long-term fiscal and monetary risk awareness cools down sharply, causing investors to choose to hedge positions. Sharing the same view, Citi in a recent report noted that "geopolitical risks may cool down" towards the end of the year, thereby putting certain pressure on gold even though the upward momentum in the first quarter of 2026 is still assessed to be solid.
