The VN-Index has surpassed the important psychological resistance zone of 1,900 points, but there is still the phenomenon of "green shell red core", investors are likely to suffer high losses if holding a portfolio lacking typical stock groups such as VIN, Gelex or the banking and securities group.
External variables such as geopolitical developments, energy prices, and high capital costs have not been completely eliminated, so market sentiment is still quite sensitive. In fact, as soon as unfavorable information or rumors appear, many stocks can reverse very quickly, as seen in the recent cases of NVL, CTD or PC1 stocks, implying that investors' risk appetite is not really stable.
However, in terms of psychology, when VN-Index has surpassed the psychological resistance zone of 1,900 points, the general state of investors is clearly improving. Cash flow tends to shift from the bluechip group to stocks with higher beta to seek better profits in the short term. Many experts are expecting the midcap group belonging to the securities, banking, industrial park, and retail sectors to attract stronger cash flow.
The Analysis Division of OCBS Securities Company believes that the cooling down of interbank interest rates and exchange rates is a very positive sign for the stock market as this shows that pressure on monetary policy has decreased significantly, while creating conditions for interest rates to remain at a low level to support economic growth.
OCBS experts still prioritize the banking group that will play a pillar role in the market thanks to attractive valuation and profits maintaining more stable growth than other sectors. In addition, the securities group may become a new driving force for a new upward momentum if liquidity improves, because this group directly reflects expectations for the market's heat.
In addition, OCBS experts also highly appreciate groups benefiting from public investment such as real estate and industrial parks. These may be groups that create a stronger spillover effect in the next stage of the market.
Ms. Nguyen Thi My Lien, Analysis Director, Phu Hung Securities Company (PHS) said that the "leading" role is likely still to belong to groups that have a major impact on the index and the ability to attract cash flow such as banks, securities and part of real estate. In which, banks are still the main foundation of the market, while the securities group will be more sensitive to the expectation of improved liquidity. However, cash flow in this period may rotate quickly between industry groups instead of concentrating for a long time in a fixed group.
The market research department of SHS Securities Company gave recommendations to industry groups including securities, residential real estate, banking, fertilizers, and steel.
In the medium term, the securities industry benefits from FTSE's announcement of market upgrades as it attracts more foreign capital and market liquidity increases. It is expected that the market will be included in MSCI's tracking list in the June review.
For the residential real estate group, some large enterprises are opening for sale and recording profits from large projects. The prices of many stocks in the industry are forecast to recover after a period of sharp decline and accumulation.
Meanwhile, banking is the key industry of the market, many banks set high growth plans. The banking group accounts for a large market capitalization and is also expected to attract foreign capital after the market officially upgrades.
For the steel group, the investment highlight is the benefit from the trend of promoting public investment and protectionist policies after the Ministry of Industry and Trade officially imposed anti-dumping duties on wide-width hot-rolled steel coils imported from China.
Finally, fertilizer prices continue to be maintained at a high level, creating favorable conditions for fertilizer industry businesses.
