Vietnam GDP growth forecast for 2026

Thạch Lam |

With the positive results achieved, many organizations and financial institutions continue to raise their GDP growth forecast for 2026.

Closing August, Vietnam's economy continued to record many positive signals when industrial production accelerated, trade set a new record, FDI capital flow reached the highest level in 5 years and tourism maintained its recovery momentum. These results are consolidating the foundation for growth in the last months of the year, although pressure from trade deficit and the number of businesses withdrawing from the market are still present.

Nguồn số liệu: Cục Thống kê (Bộ Công Thương). Thiết kế: AI
Data source: Statistics Department (Ministry of Finance). Design: AI

Talking to Lao Dong Newspaper, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang - Economic expert said that the economic results in the first 8 months of 2026 show that the Vietnamese economy is maintaining a fairly positive growth momentum. Industrial production, trade, foreign investment and business activities of enterprises are all having positive changes.

The last months of the year are usually the period when production, business, investment and consumption activities are promoted, thereby creating more momentum for growth. Along with the room from public investment, the private economic sector, exports and new growth drivers, the Vietnamese economy still has many potentials to break through in the last months of the year," Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang said.

In the economic outlook report in July, Standard Chartered also raised its forecast for Vietnam's economic growth in 2026 to 9.5%, up from the previous forecast of 7.2%, citing stronger recovery than expected in the domestic production, investment and consumption sectors.

Mr. Tim Leelahaphan, senior economist in charge of Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered, said that Vietnam has shown significant recovery and adaptability in the first half of 2026, with growth exceeding expectations thanks to the strong recovery of the processing industry, services and investment, as well as the positive impact of policy measures promoting growth.

Although global instability and inflationary pressure are still factors that need to be monitored, Vietnam enters the second half of the year from a solid position. Strong domestic demand, continuous investment in infrastructure and production capacity, along with the ongoing economic transformation process, will contribute to consolidating a more balanced and sustainable growth model, thereby supporting Vietnam's long-term development goals," Mr. Leelahaphan said.

Previously, UOB bank also raised its GDP growth forecast for the whole year to 8.5% from 7%, citing better-than-expected economic efficiency and strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI). According to UOB, the strong growth of registered FDI shows that future capital disbursement prospects are very positive and strengthen the expectation that 2026 may become a record year for attracting foreign investment in Vietnam.

Thạch Lam
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