Vietnam's economy closed the first half of 2026 with many positive results. With these results, many international organizations have raised Vietnam's GDP growth forecast for 2026.
Thanks to economic results exceeding expectations in the first half of the year, in a July report, experts from UOB (United Overseas Bank) raised Vietnam's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 8.5%, from the previous 7%. However, this level is still lower than the Government's growth target of 10% in the context that the economy still faces many external risks.
According to UOB, the State Bank will have to balance the goals of supporting growth, controlling inflation, stabilizing the foreign balance and monitoring exchange rate developments. In the current context, raising interest rates is difficult to be effective against inflation due to input costs, while reducing interest rates is also unfounded as inflation is still close to the target threshold. Therefore, the most appropriate scenario is to maintain the operating interest rate unchanged for the rest of 2026.
In its economic assessment report on July 20, Standard Chartered Bank raised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam in 2026 to 9.5%, reflecting the solid growth momentum of the economy and the maintenance of growth support policies.
Mr. Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist in charge of Vietnam and Thailand, Standard Chartered Bank, said: "Vietnam's economy has shown strong resilience and adaptability in the first half of 2026, with growth exceeding expectations thanks to the recovery of manufacturing, service and investment industries, along with support from growth-promoting policies.
In the July World Economic Outlook update, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised Vietnam's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 7.5%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the 7.1% given in the April report.
This context is even more noteworthy when the IMF forecasts that the global economy will grow by only 3% in 2026. According to this organization, the world outlook is affected in opposite directions between the shock from the Middle East conflict and the positive momentum from the AI technology cycle. Although investment in technology is expected to continue to support growth, the IMF believes that risks such as geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation and inflationary pressure are still major challenges for the global economy.
The IMF believes that a more positive outlook for the Vietnamese economy comes from increased technology exports more strongly than expected, along with domestic demand continuing to remain positive.
With a growth rate of 7.5%, Vietnam continues to be in the group of fastest growing economies in Asia and leads ASEAN.
The IMF's continued raising of its growth forecast shows greater confidence in the prospects of Vietnam's economy in 2026. However, to narrow the income gap with more developed economies in the region, the challenges in the coming years are not only maintaining high growth rates but also improving labor productivity, added value and growth quality.
According to Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong - Director of the Statistics Department (Ministry of Finance), based on the growth results of the first half of the year, the Statistics Department updated the growth scenario according to Resolution 01/2026/NQ-CP as follows: Q1 increased by 7.94%; Q2 increased by 8.39% and 6 months increased by 8.18%; Q3 increased by 11.16%; 9 months increased by 9.19%, Q4 increased by 12.09%, the whole year increased by 10%.
