Vietnam's economy is approaching the last quarter of 2026 with many positive figures. In the first 8 months of 2026, the index of industrial production (IIP) increased by 11.9% compared to the same period last year. Total registered foreign investment capital into Vietnam as of August 31, 2026 reached 40.63 billion USD, an increase of 55.4% compared to the same period last year.
In addition, the total import and export turnover of goods reached 770.14 billion USD, the highest level in eight months to date, an increase of 28.7% compared to the same period last year. These results are creating more room and momentum for growth in the last months of the year, while also posing the requirement to continue to unlock investment resources, promote production and improve growth quality.
According to SSI Research, Vietnam is focusing on investing and reforming in the early stages of the 2026-2030 5-year cycle. The core issue is whether the overall mobilization of resources (not just finance) can improve labor productivity enough to maintain high and sustainable growth with higher capital efficiency.
Macroeconomic data for July and August shows that GDP growth in Q3/2026 may fluctuate at 8.7-9.3% compared to the same period last year, with a base scenario of nearly 9%, higher than the level of 8.39% in Q2/2026. August data reinforces the view that the mobilization process is beginning to transform into production activities," SSI Research assessed.
Analyzing in more detail, SSI Research believes that the figures for July and August 2026 have shown that Vietnam is moving from mobilizing resources and transforming them into outputs/productions. Industrial production maintained over 14% compared to the same period in both months, processing and manufacturing production increased by 14.6% in August, industrial labor increased by 3.8%, and freight volume maintained double-digit growth. Exports increased by 40%, up 26% compared to the same period to 54.8 billion USD in August, while imports decreased compared to 30% in July, narrowing the monthly trade deficit from 3.6 billion USD to 0.1 billion USD.
This improvement is consistent with the fact that previous imports of machinery, components and intermediate goods began to support production and export shipments. But this is not evidence of a complete metabolic cycle, as seasonal needs, delivery times and electronic cycles can also partially explain the improvement of the month.
Trade structure is still a key point to note. Exports of electronics and computer components reached 15.9 billion USD in August, compared to corresponding imports of 25.6 billion USD. In eight months, electronics exports increased by 51.1%, while imports increased by 68.3%, and FDI enterprises accounted for about 80% of total exports. This comparison is diagnostic about import intensity, not a measure of local added value. However, it illustrates why technology transfer, supplier development and local production capacity are becoming more important policy priorities.
However, SSI Research also noted that Vietnam's investment cycle should not be viewed from a narrow perspective such as bank credit, budget spending or foreign debt. A broader policy architecture aims to integrate resources: mobilizing fiscal capacity, domestic and capital market savings, land and project development rights, state capital and balance sheets of SOEs, private sector capacity, institutional authority and selective external financial resources.
These resources cannot replace each other, and no source makes investment free. What broader mobilization may change is the investment time, project borrowing capacity, risk distribution between the State, banks, state-owned enterprises and private investors, as well as the effectiveness that the mobilized resources begin to generate.
According to Dr. Can Van Luc - Chief Economist of BIDV, member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, to achieve an average GDP growth target of 10%/year or more in the period 2026-2030, Vietnam needs to simultaneously promote technology absorption, investment and innovation.
Accordingly, some important targets to be aimed at include the contribution of TFP to GDP growth of over 55%, the digital economy accounting for about 30% of GDP, the ICOR coefficient decreasing to 4.5-4.8 times and labor productivity increasing on average by about 8.5%/year.
