Capable of achieving 10% growth
With the situation and economic indicators for the first 8 months of the year that the Statistics Office announced in early September 2026, Dr. Huynh Thanh Dien - economic expert, lecturer at Nguyen Tat Thanh University predicts that the possibility of growth of about 10% still has a chance to be achieved. However, the important goal is not only to achieve 10% this year, but to maintain an average GDP growth rate of over 10%/year throughout the 2026-2031 period.
Two-digit growth must first be understood as high and sustainable growth, not at the end of the year by all means reaching a specific number.
The important thing is not to chase after a growth figure in the short term, but to build a foundation for growth to be maintained in the long term. The most important thing is to create conditions and business opportunities for businesses, so that capital truly goes into production, business and circulation in the economy. When businesses operate well, capital flows are unlocked, growth will come. Do not make unfounded decisions because of growth pressure. If the decision is wrong today, a few years later the economy may have to pay the price," Dr. Huynh Thanh Dien emphasized.
According to MSc Nguyen Thi Chinh - Institute of Economic and Financial Strategy and Policy, Vietnam enters the 2026-2030 period with an average GDP growth target of 10%/year or more, significantly higher than the growth trajectory of about 6-7% in many previous periods. This goal cannot be achieved sustainably if only continuing to expand investment capital, labor and exploit cost advantages.
The requirement is to simultaneously quickly improve labor productivity, contribution of total factor productivity (TFP), efficiency of capital use and endogenous production capacity. In the new growth model, the private economic sector has a special position because this is a large-scale sector, using the majority of labor, directly mobilizing social resources and capable of quickly transforming market opportunities, technology and innovation into production and business activities.
MSc. Nguyen Thi Chinh believes that if Vietnam creates a private enterprise force capable of accumulating capital, mastering technology, organizing value chains and international competition, the private sector will not only be a major contributor to GDP but also become a mechanism to transform social resources into new production capacity. That is one of the fundamental conditions for Vietnam to move from a 6-7% growth trajectory to double-digit growth and move towards the goal of becoming a developed, high-income country by 2045.
Need to maintain balance to avoid macroeconomic risks
According to the Macroeconomic and Forecasting Department - Institute of Economic and Financial Strategy and Policy (Ministry of Finance), GDP growth of 8.18% in the first 6 months of the year is a high level in the context of many international fluctuations; the processing and manufacturing industry recovers strongly; services and consumption continue to expand; social investment, FDI and budget revenue all increased quite well; the labor market and business operations show signs of improvement.
However, the Macroeconomic and Forecasting Committee assessed that export growth is heavily dependent on the FDI sector; the domestic enterprise sector's export growth is significantly slower. The number of businesses withdrawing from the market is still high, while the registered labor of newly established businesses has decreased. Imports are increasing faster than exports, import surpluses of goods and services are increasing, showing that the economy is still heavily dependent on input imports and transportation services, and international insurance.
Macroeconomic stabilization pressure in the second half of the year is significant. The average CPI for 6 months has increased by 4.38%, core inflation has increased by 4.12%; the exchange rate is affected by the USD and trade deficit; gold prices fluctuate strongly; the stock market is stable but sensitive to capital flows and policy expectations. If aggregate demand is pushed too strongly while supply capacity has not improved correspondingly, the risk of inflation and macroeconomic imbalances may increase.
In the coming time, the Macroeconomic and Forecasting Department - Institute of Economic and Financial Strategy and Policy noted that policy management needs to continue to maintain a balance between high growth targets and macroeconomic stability.
