Gold and silver prices continue to receive support from long-term fundamental factors in the second quarter, however, some investment organizations believe that the market currently lacks strong enough macroeconomic momentum to create a clear breakthrough price increase.
In the newly released Q2 precious metals outlook report, London-based brokerage firm Sucden Financial said that US bond yields maintained at a high level and a stable USD continued to be factors putting pressure on gold.
According to Sucden Financial, factors such as geopolitical tensions and physical gold buying demand currently mainly play a role in supporting prices and limiting the decline, instead of creating momentum for a new strong upward trend.
For gold prices to increase more strongly, the market needs to see real yields fall and the USD weaken," the company said.
Sucden said that gold has not yet clearly shown its traditional shelter role despite increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Instead of boosting cash flow into gold, new developments have increased oil prices, thereby increasing inflation expectations and pulling US bond yields up.
This makes the opportunity cost of holding gold - an unprofitable asset - continue to increase.
According to analysts, gold prices are unlikely to form a strong upward momentum if the market does not begin to have clearer expectations about real yields falling, the USD weakening or the Fed shifting to a trend of monetary policy easing.
However, Sucden Financial believes that the long-term foundation of gold is still relatively positive.
Gold holdings of ETF funds are currently still maintained at a high level compared to history despite recent price fluctuations showing that institutional capital still maintains its presence in the market. However, this buying force currently mainly helps limit the risk of price decrease rather than creating a strong upward momentum.
Sucden forecasts that gold is likely to continue to fluctuate in the short-term accumulation range with a support zone around 4,500 USD/ounce. According to the company, gold may head towards the 4,800 USD/ounce zone if weaker US economic data appears or the Fed sends softer signals on interest rates.
Regarding silver, Sucden Financial believes that the market is in a similar context even though silver prices at the beginning of this week once increased to a two-month high and exceeded 87 USD/ounce.
According to the company, silver continues to be supported by prolonged supply shortages and speculative positions in the market that are not yet too high.
After a strong adjustment at the beginning of the year, the amount of speculative positions on the COMEX exchange has decreased significantly and is currently much lower than in previous periods. Meanwhile, the amount of silver holdings of ETF funds has also decreased compared to the end of 2025, reflecting that institutional capital has not really returned strongly even though the market is still in a state of tight supply.
Silver is likely to still be supported in Q2 thanks to prolonged supply shortages and relatively weak speculative positions," Sucden Financial said.
However, the company believes that for silver to increase more strongly, the market needs to have new ETF capital flows, speculative buying activities return, and a more favorable macroeconomic environment.
Sucden Financial also noted that silver is more sensitive to economic prospects than gold because this metal has a large proportion of industrial demand.
According to the company, silver may perform more positively than gold in the "soft landing" scenario, as inflation gradually decreases and the Fed eases monetary policy without causing the economy to fall into recession. This environment will support liquidity and at the same time maintain industrial demand for silver.
Conversely, if the global economy weakens more strongly than expected, reduced industrial demand may cause silver to fluctuate more strongly and be under greater pressure than gold.
In the short term, Sucden Financial forecasts that silver prices will continue to be supported in the 70 - 72 USD/ounce range. To return to the 80 - 85 USD/ounce range, the market is likely to need more ETF capital flows as well as clearer improvement signals from the global macroeconomy.
