World gold prices are forecast to enter a new trading week in a state of fluctuation after a period of strong correction from the previously established peak. Although some technical recovery has appeared in recent sessions, the market is still in the process of revaluation as expectations of monetary policy change and investment capital flows have not really returned strongly.
In that context, the trend next week is likely to continue to depend on signals related to the interest rate roadmap of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the diễn biến of the USD and the holding status of large investment funds in the precious metals market.
Interest rates continue to be the most important variable
One of the most strongly influencing factors on gold prices recently is the change in monetary policy expectations in the US.
Market valuation tools show that the possibility of interest rate reductions in the near future is no longer as much betted as before. Meanwhile, the probability of maintaining high interest rates for a longer period continues to be clearly reflected in the yield diễn biến of bonds.
In an environment with high real interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding gold – which is an asset that does not generate yields – has increased significantly. This is considered one of the reasons why gold prices cannot quickly regain their upward momentum as in previous periods.
In addition, the USD still maintains its role as an important capital allocation channel for international investors, thereby continuing to create direct competition against gold in the short term.
Investment capital flow is still in the adjustment phase
Another notable factor is that the state of capital flow movement in the gold market is still not really stable.
In recent times, holdings in gold-guaranteed exchange-traded funds have tended to decrease, reflecting the cautious sentiment of investors in the face of changes in the global financial environment. When speculative capital flows shrink, the possibility of forming strong uptrends is often limited.
However, in the opposite direction, some experts believe that the deep correction of gold prices in the past time is helping the market get closer to an attractive valuation range for medium-term investors.
Bottom-fishing buying power may continue to play an important role in maintaining the stability of the market's support zones next week.
Long-term accumulation demand is still a supporting factor for the foundation
Besides short-term factors, the gold accumulation demand of central banks is still considered one of the important supporting foundations for the long-term trend of the market.
In the past two years, the diversification of foreign exchange reserves through increasing the proportion of gold has become a popular trend in many major economies. Although the buying rate has slowed down at times, total accumulation remains higher than the long-term average.
This helps limit the risk of deep market correction in periods of strong fluctuations.
In the coming week, many opinions suggest that gold prices may continue to fluctuate widely as the market waits for more clear signals from monetary policy and the developments of international investment capital flows. If the USD weakens or bond yields fall back, the precious metal may see more technical recovery waves. Conversely, if interest rate expectations continue to be maintained at a high level, adjustment pressure may still last in the short term.
Overall, the gold market is still in a balanced phase between long-term supporting factors and short-term correction pressure, making the trend next week likely to continue to fluctuate according to macroeconomic information instead of forming a clear trend.
