VN-Index recorded the fourth consecutive week of decline and fell below the 1,600-point mark. Selling pressure spread to large-cap stocks and stocks that had not adjusted much before, showing increased defensive sentiment, while groups that had fallen sharply showed signs of slowing down, reflecting the process of reallocating cash flow instead of comprehensively weakening.
Liquidity in recent sessions has decreased at a very low level, showing that investors are strengthening their defense and limiting transactions. The market's marginal states are not too high, so it is not too worrying, but investors are holding a more waiting state and only disbursing a part to growth stocks.
In particular, the group of securities stocks was under strong selling pressure last week, stemming from misunderstandings about Circular 102/2025/TT-BTC of the Ministry of Finance regarding financial safety regulations for securities companies. A part of investors are concerned about the Circular tightening the limit on margin lending (margin), reducing the ratio from 200% to 180%.
However, the management agency quickly clarified that 180% is a minimum requirement for the capital safety coefficient (CAR), not a limitation for margin lending. In the context that most major securities companies are maintaining over 300% of CAR, concerns about tightening margin are gradually being erased, helping market sentiment stabilize again.
In the context of low market liquidity, the net selling scale of foreign investors is having a significant impact on the general development. Foreign investors continued to net sell, about VND 2,300 billion last week.
Notably, the third quarter of 2025 recorded the largest net selling volume by foreign investors in 5 years, bringing the ownership ratio of foreign investors in the market down to around 15% - the lowest level in many years. This development occurred right after the Vietnamese stock market was upgraded, showing that the expectation of foreign cash flow returning was not realized, even contrary to expectations.
In the short term, selling pressure from foreign investors mainly comes from two reasons. First, market valuations increased rapidly after a strong recovery, encouraging funds to proactively take profits. Second, high exchange rate fluctuations have caused ETFs to adjust their portfolio structure, reducing their proportion in emerging markets.
However, foreign capital will not necessarily be completely withdrawn. The decrease in ownership ratio to 15% is creating room for recovery in the future, as core platforms such as GDP growth, production cost advantage and corporate profit growth in Vietnam continue to remain positive. In addition, when the global interest rate cycle reverses, the pressure to withdraw capital from ETFs may cool down, creating a premise for capital flows to reverse.
According to observations, cash flow from both domestic and foreign investors only really improved when the VN-Index retreated to around the threshold of 1,600 points, consolidating the view that this is an important support zone in the short term.
Technically, the index can re-evaluate the 1,620 - 1,640 point area, but weak liquidity reflects that demand is still cautious, making the prospect of expanding the recovery pace not really clear. If the low liquidity situation continues, the market may experience more strong fluctuations below 1,600 points before recovering.
In the short term, the 1,580-1,600 point area will play a pivotal role. If the index remains balanced and soon regains 1,600 points with improved liquidity, the VN-Index is likely to maintain a range of 1,600-1,700 points. Conversely, if selling pressure continues, the risk of adjusting to 1,500-1,550 points before finding a new balance point still needs to be taken into account.
Investors can start considering partial disbursement with a focus on selecting stocks. Although the VN-Index only adjusted about 7 - 9% from the most recent peak, mostly due to the strength of Vingroup, many industry groups had significantly stronger fluctuations. In particular, real estate stocks and securities recorded an adjustment of 20 - 30%, bringing the valuation level to a more attractive area. If the stock is discounted by 10 - 15% compared to the current price, the opportunity for disbursement will be even clearer.
