VN-Index recorded an increasing session on July 31 with improved liquidity, showing that demand is returning to the market. However, this rising session shows that the sellers are still quite proactive whenever they reach a high price range during the session.
In the coming sessions, the VN-Index will still maintain the accumulation scenario in the area of 1,240-1,270 points. Resistance at 1,270 points is important in the current period. Conquering this resistance, the market state will become more positive.
Although trading was more exciting, with a net sale of nearly 900 billion VND per real estate share, foreign investors increased the net selling value by more than 110% in the July 31 session. That is, this block focused on selling VIC shares, with a net selling volume of 21.42 million units and a net selling value of 898.3 billion VND.
The market had a relatively decisive rally with momentum coming from large-cap stocks. Most prominent is the consensus of the banking and real estate groups when the majority of stocks in these industry groups maintained the green color. Recovery signals have shown signs of improvement, but it is still not possible to confirm that there has been a reversal back to the upward trend. Perhaps further confirmation of explosive liquidity is needed to reinforce market optimism.
The story of the market not being able to break through according to some experts is that high margin debt balance is always a big pressure weighing on psychology when the market adjusts. Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital analyzed, with information compiled from the second quarter 2024 financial statements of securities companies, showing that the total outstanding margin debt reached a new peak of more than 230 trillion VND. , higher than the market's peak outstanding balance in early 2022, has had a significant impact on market psychology. An interesting development is the prolonged net selling of large value by foreign investors, which needs a counterpart force to absorb, including loans from domestic investors. In fact, the market had a good recovery in the first half of this year, thereby increasing purchasing power and stimulating speculative activities using margin.
And when the market had a sharp decline last week, even breaking the support threshold of 1,240 points, it caused confusion among investors and there was a time when there was quite a large selling force because of the pressure to add assets. Call margin increases.
However, the general opinion of experts still expects the VN-Index to continue to increase to 1,350 - 1,380 points by the end of 2024, supported by a strong recovery in market profit growth, low interest rate environment and strong confidence in interest rate cuts by the US Central Bank (Fed). The recovery in the overall economic outlook will boost profit growth of listed companies.
In the current context, investors can be more open and start looking for new buying positions, as well as prioritize increasing the proportion of profitable codes in the portfolio. Experts expect VN-Index to conquer the resistance mark of 1,317 points in August.
However, risks are also gradually increasing. Although pressure on the VND may ease in the second half of 2024 due to the Fed's less tough stance around the third quarter of this year, the strength of the DXY (US dollar index) is expected to remain throughout the year. year. Along with the increased demand for USD for export activities, exchange rate pressure is still seen as the top risk. This will reduce foreign investors' interest in the Vietnamese market.
