The VN-Index "shakes" within a range of 10 points after recovery sessions, with the general sentiment still being cautious. In yesterday's trading session, on July 30, selling pressure increased again after the previous two consecutive gaining sessions. This is not too surprising when the rising sessions all had quite low liquidity.
Although foreign investors focused on buying large codes such as VNM, MSN, MWG, with a spread selling portfolio, this sector still maintained a net selling status of 328 billion VND in the July 30 session.
In today's session, liquidity increased quite strongly and approached the 20-session average but positive signals have not yet appeared. The positive point is that after falling nearly 10 points, demand tended to increase, helping VN-Index close with only a slight decrease.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, said that correction sessions like yesterday are not too surprising, when the market has had 4 recovery sessions and this is the time for short-term investors to close. Therefore, in general, the market is still moving stably. If VN-Index maintains a sideways accumulation within the range of 1,240-1,250 points, it is expected to soon regain momentum towards higher points.
Experts from Asean Securities Company commented that the market experienced a down session after signals from financial reports were continuously published. Negative developments continue to appear more clearly in the group of small and medium capitalization stocks as this is also the group with the strongest increase in the past quarter and more information is needed to reassess expectations.
On the contrary, the majority of large capitalization groups are trading relatively actively in the context of a supply-reducing market. Therefore, maintaining the view that investors should avoid chasing green prices in the current context, temporarily hold a moderate proportion of stocks and observe the market.
Experts from SHS Securities Company believe that, in the short term, the trend of VN-Index is still less positive when it cannot maintain the trend line to support short-medium-term growth. The index is still in the area of 1,245-1,255 points, corresponding to the highest price area in 2023.
The fulcrum for the stock market in the last months of the year is the recovery in the overall economic outlook, which will boost profit growth of listed companies. MBS Securities Company estimates that market profit growth will be 20% and 15% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
Industry groups expected to have strong profit growth in 2024 include: banking (up 20% over the same period), retail (up 204%), construction materials (up 56%), and electricity (up 56%) 25%). In 2025, market profit growth may decrease to 15%, but will be supported by the banking industry (up 23% over the same period), construction materials (up 33%), and industrial parks (up 23% over the same period). increased by 26%) and electricity (increased by 28%).
MBS expects the VN-Index will continue to increase to 1,350 - 1,380 points by the end of 2024, supported by a strong recovery in market profit growth, a low interest rate environment and strong confidence in interest rate cuts by the US Central Bank.
