Identifying "bottlenecks
After 40 years of Doi Moi, Vietnam's economy has grown strongly, GDP in 2025 is estimated at more than 500 billion USD, average income exceeds 5,000 USD, trade is in the top 20 in the world. But the question is what is the driving force for the road ahead.
Experts believe that the growth model has revealed limitations: Still dependent on capital and labor; investment efficiency is not high; low productivity; TFP contribution is limited; economic structure is shifting slowly.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham Thi Tuyet Trinh (Ho Chi Minh City University of Banking) said that the growth model reveals many "bottlenecks", when growth is more cyclical recovery than quality improvement. Although processing and manufacturing increased by nearly 10%, the main driving force still comes from the FDI sector, accounting for 77.4% of exports, showing that domestic added value is still low, Vietnam still mainly processes and assembles.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham Thi Tuyet Trinh also pointed out the issue of the breakdown in the link between services and industry. The added value of domestic services in Vietnam's exports has decreased to 12%, much lower than the 27-40% level of neighboring countries. Even in the processing industry, the rate of domestic service participation is only about 7%. This proves that the industrialization process is still based on intensive labor and capital, instead of the content of knowledge and endogenous technology.
From another perspective, the institution of special development in new fields such as digital economy and digital data has not kept up with reality. Factor markets (capital, labor, land, science and technology) operate inconsistently, causing resources not to be allocated effectively.
In the context of increasingly fierce global competition, along with the complex developments of the world situation, if we continue to rely on old drivers, the economy can hardly create a leap forward. Therefore, the requirement to innovate the growth model is no longer an option, but an inevitable requirement.
Need a specific strategy to restructure the economy
At the working session on March 17 with the Ministry of Industry and Trade and a number of related ministries and sectors on international trade relations and trade connections with important partners in the current geo-political and geo-economic context of the world, General Secretary To Lam requested relevant agencies to have specific strategies to restructure the economy, gradually balance the trade balance while still ensuring economic growth goals; "untie" the old way of thinking, create a sense of balance between promoting cooperation and risk management; link trade with upgrading technology, equipment, high-quality investment accompanied by high requirements for localization rates, technology transfer, and enhancing the position of Vietnamese enterprises in the production chain.
According to Mr. Nguyen Bich Lam - former Director General of the General Statistics Office, the global economy is facing three threats: Tariff war and protectionism that break the global supply chain; increased risk of financial and monetary instability in the context of inflation and slowing growth; the risk of technology bubbles, especially in the field of artificial intelligence, which can create shocks that spread to investment, capital markets and growth.
In that situation, the economy cannot just run faster, but must follow a different method. To escape the middle-income trap and not lose competitive advantage in the next decade, all countries that come later must establish a new growth level, with a growth structure different in quality, motivation and efficiency.
Mr. Nguyen Bich Lam expressed his opinion on a new growth level but not numbers, but an economic structure, where growth is created by productivity, innovation, high-quality capital flows and the competitiveness of domestic enterprises.
According to Mr. Lam, one of the shifts is the shift from broad growth to deep growth, improving the quality of growth. The main driving force for economic growth in the new period must come from productivity, technology and innovation, instead of cheap labor or credit expansion.
Moving from a growth model based on expanding input factors to a growth model based on knowledge and innovation capacity. This requires strong investment in research and development, automation, digital economy, knowledge economy and core technology industries.
Meanwhile, according to Dr. Vo Tri Thanh - Director of the Institute for Brand and Competitiveness Strategy Research, in order not to lose historical opportunities, Vietnam must undergo a "major brain surgery" and embark on the path of comprehensive growth model transformation. In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to completing the financial policy framework...
