In the early morning of October 8, FTSE Russell announced the upgrading of Vietnam's securities from a frontier market to an emerging market after 7 years of being on the watch list. The FTSE Russell Index (IGB) Board of Directors (IGB) confirmed that Vietnam meets all criteria for a secondary emerging market.
According to FTSE Russell, the upgrade will take effect from September 21, 2026, but depending on the results of the review in March 2026.
Explaining this " conditional" upgrading announcement, FTSE Russell said that IGB has carefully reviewed opinions from Advisory Committees regarding the limitations of the role of global securities companies (global brokers) when trading in Vietnam.
This is not a mandatory condition, but IGB said improving market access for this group of investors is a necessary factor, supporting the simulation of the index. Therefore, the purpose of the review in March 2026 is to assess the progress in expanding the role of global securities companies.
Commenting on this assessment period, Mr. Pham Luu Hung, Chief Economist of SSI Securities, said that the review in March 2026 is not a risk, but a necessary period of time for management agencies to thoroughly overcome existing shortcomings.
"We still have difficulties, have identified them but have not completely handled them. This period of time is very valuable for more comprehensive completion, said Mr. Hung.
One of the areas that Mr. Hung emphasized needs to be improved is the procedures for opening accounts for foreign investors. Although Vietnam has amended many circulars and regulations, making it easier for foreign investors to open accounts, investors still have to comply with regulations from their country, making the process not really smooth.
According to Mr. Hung, this group of investors expect more flexible mechanisms from global brokers and Vietnamese management agencies. He predicted that the regulation on opening accounts for foreign investors could be finalized within the next two months.
Meanwhile, Mr. Tran Hoang Son - Market Strategy Director, VPBankS Securities, said that FTSE Russell has established an Official Review process (O BR) for assessment, based on the National Classification framework of FTSE Securities. They emphasized the need to address limited access by global brokers to build trust and reduce risks.
Regarding results and schedule, the upgrade is confirmed to take effect from September 21, 2026, depending on the temporary assessment in March 2026. The implementation will follow many stages, after consulting with relevant parties. FTSE Russell will continue to monitor and announce detailed plans in March 2026.
Mr. Son also said that according to the Stock Market Development Strategy to 2030, Vietnam's stock market capitalization will reach 100% of GDP in 2025 and 120% of GDP in 2030, from about 70-100% of current GDP (capitalization will reach ~300 billion USD in 2025). This will be supported by GDP growth of 6.5-8% annually and capital mobilization through IPOs and equitization of state-owned enterprises.
Regarding liquidity (average daily transaction value), it is forecast to increase sharply thanks to upgrades and reforms.
Mr. Son predicted that in the 2025-2026 period, liquidity will increase from the current 860 million USD to 1.5-2 billion USD/session, thanks to foreign capital flow of 3-5 billion USD from FTSE and KRX upgrades. In the 2027-2030 period, liquidity can reach 3-5 billion USD/session, with the number of securities accounts reaching 15 - more than 20 million accounts.
