The Vietnamese stock market has just gone through a derivatives maturity session and is considered to have not fluctuated too much. After a relatively cautious trading session on the morning of June 19, the market entered the afternoon session with a somewhat better performance.
Accordingly, although trading is still quite slow, the electronic board has appeared many more blue stocks, while the blue chip group has also had stocks reverse to increase prices and appear big names such as TCB, VIC extending their upward momentum.
At the end of the session on June 19, the VN-Index increased by 5.21 points to 1,352.04 points, the highest level since the beginning of this year. However, liquidity has somewhat decreased compared to the previous session, the matched value on HOSE only reached VND16,220 billion.
Regarding foreign transactions, foreign investors continued to sell strongly, net up to VND 901 billion in today's session. On the HOSE floor alone, foreign investors have net sold more than VND 893 billion. In particular, FPT shares continued to be net sold the most by foreign investors with a value of VND 389 billion, followed by stocks such as VHM and STB that were simultaneously issued strongly over VND 100 billion.
In addition, VIC and MWG were also net sold. In contrast, DGW and SSI were the strongest net buyers in the whole market with a value of more than 60 billion VND per code.
It can be seen that the liquidity of the stock market is currently dependent on interest rates and confidence, in which interest rates are low, but confidence in the market needs time to be consolidated due to macro-level uncertainty and disruptive information. Trade on tariffs with the US has not yet had official results, although the progress has been positive, which is a factor that makes investors cautious.
Meanwhile, foreign cash flow net sold continuously in the first 4 months of the year, despite a period of net buying in early May, has created a fearful psychology. The global macro context is less positive, with the global manufacturing PMI index declining in May, especially the exchange rate also fluctuating unfavorably, contributing to curbing cash flow from foreign investors.
Mr. Nguyen Viet Duc - VPBank Securities Digital Business Director (VPBankS) - affirmed that the adjustment wave has ended at 1,310 points. If the market recovers, exceeding 1,340%, it may enter a new wave of increase. Otherwise, the market will adjust again and have the next support level at 1,280 points. Investors need to allocate money to buy in those sessions, limiting being caught up in strong increases.
There is a 60 - 65% chance that the market has bottomed out. In the remaining 35%, if the market decreases further, investors still have the opportunity to sell. If you are holding stocks and afraid that the market will decline, investors can rest assured that there will still be recovery sessions to resell.
Experts from ABS Securities Company also expressed their view that the June stock market will continue to be led by positive macro signals at home and abroad, despite many risks still present. According to ABS, this is the period when the market is facing medium-term growth opportunities thanks to positive tariff negotiations and government efforts.
The scenario of market movement trends with high probability predicted by ABS experts is a short-term trend that is likely to weaken in early June, with the potential to move sideways with the proposed support level at 1,310 -1,293 points and 1,260 - 1,283 points, before increasing again in a larger trend to conquer the price range of 1,400 points. The positive market scenario brings more trading opportunities for short-term investors, allowing the structure of stock portfolios to suit the next uptrend.
