The VN-Index ended last week's session with a red candlestick, falling due to increased selling pressure, while bottom-fishing cash flow has not yet participated strongly.
Besides the general weakening market, foreign investors also sharply reduced their transactions in the week of November 4-8, but continued to net sell up to VND 3,640 billion, focusing on the big pair VHM and MSN.
The stock market last week had many opportunities to break out of its current position, but the cash flow momentum was still weak and there was a lack of consensus among sectors. However, it can be seen that although the market declined, the compression was not large and there were still attractive stocks that attracted cash flow. Therefore, according to analysts, the market status is shifting to the accumulation phase and waiting for the starting signal.
With the market about to enter an information trough, the cautious trend of cash flow is expected to continue next week, causing the VN-Index to maintain a downward trend and fluctuate within the range of 1,230 - 1,255 points.
The market is forecast to rebalance and have slow recovery in the short term. Investors should closely follow exchange rate developments and the State Bank's actions in the coming time to wait for more certain disbursement signals when the market has a clear recovery trend.
Divergence may continue to be the highlight of the upcoming trading week. In addition to businesses that are performing well such as telecommunications - technology, industrial real estate, industry groups that have had cumulative adjustments such as textiles, construction, and oil and gas may have good transactions regardless of how the market develops.
From a technical perspective, experts from SHS Securities Company believe that the short-term trend of VN-Index continues to be under pressure to adjust to the price range around 1,250 points, the highest price range in 2023, the nearest resistance around 1,270 points, the current 20-session average.
For the short-term trend to improve, the index needs to overcome the strong resistance zone around 1,270 points, with good volume increase. In the medium-term trend, VN-Index grows above the support zone around 1,250 points, heading towards the price zone of 1,300 points.
Rong Viet Securities Company also commented that the market failed to recover, continued to retreat and returned to the MA200 zone, the 1,252 point zone. Liquidity increased compared to the previous session, showing that supply pressure is putting pressure again when the supporting cash flow is still quite limited.
However, supply pressure is still quite active, especially the net selling of foreign investors in a series of large-cap stocks, so we need to be cautious and wait for clearer supply and demand signals. These supply and demand signals will have an impact on the next steps of the market.
"Therefore, investors need to slow down and observe supply and demand to reassess the market situation. Currently, the market stability is low and there are potential risks, so investors also need to consider reasonable portfolio management to avoid falling into an overbought state," VDSC recommended.
