The driving force comes from the leadership of the banking group.
In the last months of 2024, experts predict that the growth momentum will come from the leadership of the banking group thanks to the capital demand for economic recovery and development, while stimulating people's consumption, helping credit growth in 2024 to reach the target of 14% - 15%.
According to VIS Securities, the liquidity of the banking system has returned to a stable level after more than 3 months of control by the State Bank to stabilize the exchange rate. This is reflected in the fact that interbank interest rates have begun to cool down and residents' deposits continue to flow into the banking system. Listed banks continue to differentiate according to profit. Accordingly, some banks forecast that pre-tax profit growth could be from 10% - 15% in 2024.
Because bank valuations are still low, the risk of deep price declines in this industry group will be limited. Bank stocks that are assessed as having potential according to VIS are: BID, CTG, MBB, LPB, TCB, OCB, ACB.
With interest rates remaining low and consumer demand increasing again, retailers' sales will be boosted. Government support policies such as reducing value added tax will support the economy and the retail industry in particular to improve consumer demand.
Some retail businesses on the floor are taking strong paths and focusing on core strengths to promote growth such as PNJ with jewelry and taking advantage of domestic gold prices increasing by more than 50% compared to last year; FRT with pharmaceuticals and vaccines, MWG with strong profit growth expected in the last 2 quarters...
Aviation, a bright public investment
In addition, the aviation industry is also expected to recover well in 2024 as Vietnam's tourism has almost recovered 100% compared to the pre-pandemic context. The recovery of the tourism industry has led to a significant recovery of the domestic and international aviation industry. Notably, Vietnam Airlines' (HVN) quarterly profit has also begun to show signs of being positive again after a long period of negative results since 2021. VIS Securities predicts bright aviation stocks: HVN, VJC, ACV, NCT.
According to Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, a financial economist, public investment is also one of the key factors supporting economic growth in the final months of the year. The expert analyzed that in addition to reinvesting in infrastructure that was devastated by Typhoon Yagi, public investment should be directed towards important projects and works that have a widespread impact, laying the foundation for economic development in 2025 and the following years.
Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu added that another urgent task is to support the full recovery of the private economic sector, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, through continuing to strongly reform administrative procedures, reducing costs for businesses, increasing access to credit with reasonable interest rates, etc. These are also the key tasks that the Government and the Prime Minister have been and are resolutely directing.
"In September 2024, the FED will most likely start the process of reducing interest rates. This will have a positive impact, helping the US and world economies gradually recover, and the demand for goods from Vietnam will increase. The economic outlook in 2025 may be brighter than in 2024" - Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu commented.
Stocks that are considered to have investment potential by the end of 2024 include: C4G, HHV, VCG.
