According to the updated report of VNDIRECT Securities Company, Petrochemical and Fertilizer Corporation (PVFCCo, stock code: DPM) is expected to record strong profit growth in 2025 and 2026, despite the decline in urene consumption due to factory maintenance and weaker demand from the domestic market.
According to the report, DPM's net profit is expected to increase by 27.4% in 2025, to VND756 billion, thanks to reduced oil prices and the positive impact of the revised Law on Value Added Tax (VAT), overwhelming the negative impact of declining urate consumption output. By 2026, net profit is expected to continue to increase by 35.2%, reaching more than VND 1,000 billion, as output recovers and oil prices continue to decrease.
Ureas output will decrease in 2025, mainly due to DPM's plan to carry out the 12th overall maintenance period for the ure plant, with a longer period to upgrade some important items. It is expected that urene production output will decrease by 11.9% over the same period, to 784,000 tons. At the same time, weak domestic demand due to sharp decline in rice prices - which affects the driving force of rice cultivation - also caused the urea consumption to decrease by 13.1%, down to 781,000 tons.
However, DPM's ure segment profit margin is expected to improve sharply thanks to reduced input gas prices. Brent oil prices are forecast to average $75/barrel in 2025 and fall further to $70/barrel in 2026, helping the average cost of DPM gas decrease by 2.2% per year over the next two years. Combined with the urete selling price forecast to increase slightly by 0.9% this year, the urete gross profit margin is expected to increase by 4.3 percentage points to 21.9% in 2025 and continue to increase by 25% in 2026.
DPM is implementing a comprehensive brand repositioning strategy. From December 2024, the company officially used a new brand identity called PHUMY, marking a transformation period after more than 20 years of operation.
Recently, on March 7, 2025, the Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (PVN) approved a plan to increase the charter capital for DPM by VND 2,886 billion, to VND 6,800 billion, through issuing bonus stocks from the development investment fund. After completion, DPM will become the fertilizer company with the largest charter capital in the market.
However, Ms. Duong Thi Thu Hue, Analysis Bloc - VNDIRECT Securities Joint Stock Company also noted a number of risks that may affect DPM's prospects in the coming time, including unfavorable fluctuations in input gas prices or the possibility of ure and NPK selling prices falling again following the general trend of global fertilizer prices.
On the stock market, at the end of the trading session on March 25, 2025, DPM shares were trading at VND35,250/share, with matched volume reaching 1.6 million units.
