GDP in the first 6 months of 2026 increased by 8.18%, and in the second quarter alone increased by 8.39%, showing that the growth momentum continues to be consolidated.
Industry and construction are the main drivers, increasing by 9.81% and contributing 47.2% to the overall increase. In which, processing and manufacturing increased by 10.23%; asset accumulation increased by 15.2%, reflecting the need for investment to expand production.
However, to aim for a full-year growth target of 10% or more, according to the scenario in Resolution No. 168/NQ-CP of the Government, GDP in the last six months of the year needs to increase by about 11.9%. This requires more resources for production, investment and consumption, but does not mean expanding credit at all costs.
Capital flow must create more production capacity
Talking to Lao Dong Newspaper, Ms. Ngo Anh Nguyet, Institute of Banking Science Research, Banking Academy, said that the credit growth orientation for the entire system in 2026 is about 15%. If this level is achieved, outstanding credit balance may increase by nearly VND 2.787 million billion.
The credit target in the second half of 2026 is not only "how much to increase", but more importantly, where to increase, for whom and with what quality" - Ms. Nguyet assessed - this is a very large resource, but the contribution to growth depends on where the money flow is brought in and the efficiency of capital use of enterprises.
According to Ms. Nguyet, credit needs to continue to be prioritized for production, business, processing and manufacturing industry, high-tech agriculture, exports, supporting industries, digital transformation, green transformation and essential infrastructure. These are areas that have the potential to create more supply capacity for the economy.
Credit capital for processing, manufacturing, high-tech agriculture and supporting industries will help businesses expand production, innovate technology, and participate more deeply in the supply chain.
When capital flows create new goods, services and production capacity, growth is supported while still limiting inflationary pressure.
Conversely, if cash flow mainly flows into speculative activities or sectors that do not directly generate production capacity, asset prices may increase, but the number of products, jobs and income generated is not commensurate.
Therefore, Ms. Nguyet proposed that the allocation of credit growth room should be linked to the quality of each bank's portfolio. Credit institutions that control bad debts well, are transparent in interest rates, and have a high proportion of lending to priority sectors and provide substantive business support. In the opposite direction, credit to sectors with potential risks, speculative or not creating additional production capacity needs to continue to be controlled.
It is necessary to increase monitoring of capital flows after disbursement using data, monitoring whether capital is used for the right purposes such as purchasing equipment, innovating technology, and expanding production.
According to Ms. Nguyet, controlling capital according to purpose, project efficiency and risk level will help credit support substantive growth, limit inflationary pressure and the asset market.
Fiscal sharing, currency goes to the right address
Resolution 168/NQ-CP was issued by the Government at the end of June 2026, focusing on updating the economic growth scenario and key solutions to promote growth in the last months of the year. The Resolution sets out the requirement for flexible coordination between focused expansionary fiscal policy and proactive and appropriate monetary policy. This is necessary because the banking system cannot alone meet the entire capital needs for the goal of high growth.
According to data released by the Ministry of Finance, in the first six months of 2026, the total amount of tax, fees and charges exempted and reduced is estimated at 92,400 billion VND. The exemption, reduction or extension of financial obligations helps businesses retain more cash to buy raw materials, pay salaries and maintain operations.
When short-term cash flow is improved, businesses reduce their borrowing needs to cover regular expenses. As a result, credit has more room for medium and long-term investments such as buying machinery, innovating technology, expanding production, developing infrastructure and social housing.
Fiscal policy supports cash flow for businesses, while monetary policy ensures that capital flows to the right address, on time and does not create additional inflationary pressure" - Ms. Nguyet shared her point of view.
Resolution 168 requires promoting public investment disbursement, using state financial resources effectively. When infrastructure is deployed on schedule, budget capital will lead to orders for businesses and create more jobs.
However, the increase in medium and long-term credit also requires banks to manage term differences well, avoiding using too much short-term capital for long-term projects. Therefore, banks need to diversify capital sources through issuing valuable papers, international cooperation, exploiting green capital and concessional capital; and at the same time control bad debts to maintain reasonable interest rates.
Nearly 2.8 million billion VND of additional credit is a large resource, but the effectiveness must be shown in expanded production, increased goods, new jobs and actual income of workers.
