The Vietnamese stock market has experienced its first week of adjustment after a series of 4 consecutive increases, when the VN-Index fluctuated around the old peak in early March, in the range of 1,3241,350 points.
Although the adjustment level is slight, when combined with cash flow developments and current technical signals, it shows that cautious psychology is dominating and risks are clearer in the short term. Current cash flow does not have a sustainable spread but mainly rotates between large industry groups, focusing only on attracting stocks with their own stories.
After the banking group, cash flow shifts to real estate, followed by stocks and then the electricity industry. However, this rotation has not yet created enough strong momentum to push the index up further.
A noteworthy point is that pillar stocks, especially in the Vingroup ecosystem (VIC, VHM, VRE) - although the market has adjusted, these stocks have not decreased significantly, helping the index maintain a balanced position. However, if this group shows profit-taking pressure, experts and investors believe that the VN-Index may be under stronger selling pressure.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Strategy Director of DG Capital, commented that the stock market will continue to maintain a state of high caution when there is no clear supporting information, especially from the Vietnam - US tariff negotiation process, which is still of particular interest to investors.
Therefore, VN-Index is unlikely to break out next week. The index still has difficulty breaking the old peak around 1,320 - 1,343 points. The inability to overcome this resistance zone clearly and sustainably shows that demand is not strong enough, while profit-taking pressure is increasing.
Many experts also agree that the VN-Index may be under strong fluctuating pressure and retreat to inspect the support zone around 1,280 - 1,300 points. This is an important technical threshold that needs to be closely monitored to assess the possibility of the market stabilizing again or continuing to adjust more deeply.
Technically, last week's VN-Index showed a strong tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, reflecting the psychological confusion and unclear next trends. The signal also warns of weak increase momentum and increasing correction risks.
The analysis of VNDirect Securities Company assessed that the VN-Index will re-test the support area around 1,320 points. The development of VN-Index in this region will determine whether the market's short-term increase trend is still maintained. If this support is lost, the VN-Index can back to the deeper support area at 1,300 points.
In that context, investors should consider lowering leverage and adjusting the proportion of stocks to a safe level. Realizing profits and prioritizing portfolio risk management should be prioritized as the market is about to enter a 30-day "key" with many important events taking place such as the FED's policy meeting in mid-June and the counterpart tax negotiation deadline in early July.
Experts from Asean Securities Company recommend that investors with a high proportion of stocks should consider taking partial profits or restructuring weak stocks in the portfolio, to have room for disbursement again at technical adjustments. Investors with low stock ponders can consider gradually disbursing in fluctuating sessions, focusing on stocks that benefit from economic recovery, growth in business results, attractive valuations and high cash dividends, prioritizing banking, securities, public investment and retail stocks.
